September 7, 2020 - Why Did Testing Vanish?
Why Did Testing Vanish?
September 7, 2020
Alabama reported 659 new cases today (none probable) and 3,687 tests. There were zero deaths. No deaths and no probable cases sound like Labor Day reporting hiccups to me.
For more than a week now, testing has been sharply lower than normal. To convey a sense of how little we are testing in this State, consider this. All of New York State (population ~ 20 million) reported 456 cases today, more than 200 fewer cases than Alabama. To come up with that number, they tested 58,865 persons. In case you may wonder if I’m cherry-picking data from one day, NY State recorded 729 positives yesterday out of 85,630 tests and 801 out of 99,761 the day before.
I wish I could explain why our testing has plummeted so much. As recently as August 20, our 7-day average of reported tests was 13,330; today, the average is only 4,509 - a decline of two-thirds. Over the last week, according to the Washington Post, Alabama has averaged 67 daily tests per 100K population. The next lowest State testing average over the same time period is Wyoming with 524 daily tests per 100K population. The State with the highest daily average: Alaska with 5,446 per 100K population.
There is simply no way we can know if community spread is getting better or worse in our State unless we test more systematically and more often. Our 7-day rolling average positivity rate (including probables), according to BamaTracker, remains above 20% for the 4th straight day (20.39% to be exact). That is an awful infection rate - highest in the nation - and should be both alarming and humiliating to us all. The obvious question is, are we only testing the most symptomatic people and, if so, are we failing to identify a large segment of viral carriers who are asymptomatic?
I have wondered out loud in recent posts if ADPH’s reported tests reflect the increasing use of antigen tests (i.e. the rapid nasal swab tests that do not involve a lab). If not, why isn’t this trend equally reflected in the test totals of other states? Unfortunately, we have heard nothing but crickets on that score from ADPH. As the saying goes, we are like mushrooms left in the dark and fed s---.
Today’s current statewide hospitalizations did not change much over the weekend - 858 patients in 101 reporting hospitals, compared to 880 in 105 hospitals on Friday. Several commenters have speculated that the rising infection rate among younger persons, especially college students, is not translating into higher hospitalizations. That sounds like a plausible explanation. The 14-day totals:
8/25 - 532
8/26 - 2,012
8/27 - 1,769
8/28 - 1,162
8/29 - 1,704
8/30 - 1,346
8/31 - 823
9/1 - 1,558
9/2 - 623
9/3 - 1,046
9/4 - 1,108
9/5 - 1,410
9/6 - 511
9/7 - 659
Over the last 7 days, the daily average of new cases for the 10 most populous counties are, in descending order: Jefferson (138); Lee (83); Tuscaloosa (58); Madison (56); Shelby (55); Mobile (45); Calhoun (44); Montgomery (35); Baldwin (26); and Morgan (13).