September 5, 2020 - Last in Testing; First in Positivity
Last in Testing; First in Positivity
September 5, 2020
ADPH reported 1,410 new cases (incl. 372 probables) and 7,188 new tests today. There were also 18 more deaths as Alabama ended the week with its third highest weekly death total since the pandemic began. Our State has averaged 1,173 cases per day and 4,371 tests per day over the last 7 days, resulting in a 7-day average positivity rate (including probables) of 23.78%. That is the highest positivity rate in the nation - meaning, we officially have the highest rate of community spread in the entire country.
In absolute terms, our current statewide hospitalizations for COVID-19 declined from 880 to 818 today but the number of reportng hospitals also declined from 105 to 91. I don’t know which hospitals are missing from the count so it’s hard to assess the meaning of today’s decline. Another way to evaluate our hospitalizations is by comparing them to other states. According to Johns Hopkins, Alabama currently has 18 COVID hospital patients per 100K population, which ranks 4th highest in the nation in that category - behind only Mississippi, Georgia and Nevada.
Yesterday, I said I couldn’t square our high infection rate with our declining hospitalizations. After seeing how high our State ranks in the comparative data, my opinion has changed. I now realize that Alabama’s hospitalizations are not declining as much as I thought. Indeed, our high infection rate is actually indicative of the relatively high number of hospitalizations.
Speaking of comparisons with other states, consider this. Over just the last 7 days, Alabama ranks (i) 5th in the nation in new cases per 100K population (163/100K), (ii) 10th in the nation in deaths per 100K population (2.5/100K) and (iii) last in the nation in tests per 100K population (44/100K). These are all awful numbers considering that Alabama ranks 25th in the nation in total population.
There is plenty of room for debate over why Alabama has such high recent rates of infection, hospitalization and death while ranking last in the nation in testing. It seems clear that colleges and universities are contributing factors. On Friday, the University of Alabama System reported 872 students and 12 faculty/staff on the Tuscaloosa campus tested positive during the week ended Friday, Sept. 3. Since classes resumed 2 weeks ago, 1,935 students and 21 faculty/staff have now tested positive. Auburn had 498 positives in its first week of classes and will report again on Tuesday.
8/23 - 528
8/24 - 1,650
8/25 - 532
8/26 - 2,012
8/27 - 1,769
8/28 - 1,162
8/29 - 1,704
8/30 - 1,346
8/31 - 823
9/1 - 1,558
9/2 - 623
9/3 - 1,046
9/4 - 1,108
9/5 - 1,410
Etowah County reported a record 167 new cases (incl. 147 probables), followed by Jefferson (147), Madison (113), Tuscaloosa (91), Lee (88) and Calhoun (83). Etowah County is home to several small colleges and the Etowah County Jail and ICE detention center. Calhoun County is the home of Jacksonville State University.