September 4, 2020 - 3-Day Weekends
3-Day Weekends
September 4, 2020
Today’s ADPH report brings us 1,108 new cases (incl. 420 probables) and 4,019 new tests. The 7-day average of cases has plateaued at 1,172 while the 7-day average of tests has fallen to 4,975 per day. There were also 24 more deaths, taking the State total to 2,257.
These data produce a 7-day positivity rate of 22.04% (reminder: the positivity rate measures community spread of the virus). That matches the highest positivity rate Alabama has experienced since the pandemic began (other than 9/2 which doesn’t count because of flawed data). It’s higher than any State in the country except perhaps the Dakotas. While I have no doubt the situation in Alabama is not good, I’m frankly skeptical that it’s as bad as it appears.
There are two reasons for my skepticism. First, it’s hard to square this high infection rate with the declining hospitalization rates in the State (880 patients today in 105 hospitals). UAB Hospital and DCH have seen sharp drops in hospital patients since the peak in early August. You have to go back to the 4th of July to find a lower statewide hospital count. Granted, hospitalizations lag new infections, so it’s possible the favorable trend will reverse course. We’ll see.
The second reason for my skepticism is more complicated. Our positivity rate spiked mainly because the number of reported tests sharply declined (reminder: positivity rate is determined by dividing the weekly cases by the weekly tests). In a news briefing yesterday, Dr. Jeanne Marrazzo (head of UAB’s Division of Infectious Diseases) commented that antigen tests are now being used more than PCR tests because they have a rapid turnaround and don’t require a lab. She also expressed confidence in the reliability of positive antigen test results; however, she was less confident that all antigen tests (including negatives) are being duly recorded since the tests are not being administered by a professional lab.
Bottom line: if ADPH is understating the number of antigen tests, as I suspect they may be, then our actual positivity rate is lower than reported.
Today is the first day of the Labor Day Weekend. The United States is averaging about 40,000 new cases per day, up from the level ahead of Memorial Day weekend of around 22,000 per day. Even if the positivity rate is a bit inflated, we enter this 3-day weekend at an especially high baseline in Alabama. Experts agree that the summer spike in Alabama’s infection rate can be blamed, in large part, on poor behavior during the last two 3-day weekends. Therefore, now more than ever, tell your family, friends and neighbors (especially the younger set) - Wear the Damn Mask!
8/22 - 900
8/23 - 528
8/24 - 1,650
8/25 - 532
8/26 - 2,012
8/27 - 1,769
8/28 - 1,162
8/29 - 1,704
8/30 - 1,346
8/31 - 823
9/1 - 1,558
9/2 - 623
9/3 - 1,046
9/4 - 1,108
Jefferson County was the leader with 131 cases, followed by Lee County with 121. Only 6 counties have a 14-day positivity rate less than 5% (World Health Org’s recommended threshold) - Chambers (3.92%), Tallapoosa (4.22%), Houston (4.43%), Coosa (4.55%), Dale (4.66%) and Coffee (4.88%).