September 3, 2020 - Worst Infection Rate
Worst Infection Rate
September 3, 2020
We have ADPH’s report on new cases but, once again, the State’s test data is a mess. Without good test data, it’s hard to determine if community spread is getting better or worse. As for cases, Alabama had 1,046 (incl. 665 probables) and the 7-day average is 1,180 per day. As I said yesterday, “probable” cases are real cases and are treated as such by ADPH, Johns Hopkins and virtually every other state. For the most part, they have been confirmed with a positive antigen test, which is considered highly accurate.
ADPH reported net 1,076 new tests, after removing 1,600 tests from their calculations. It appears the tests that were removed are antibody tests that previously, and mistakenly, were combined with diagnostic tests. Antibody tests are used only to determine if a person once previously had COVID-19, which is irrelevant to a current diagnosis. Antibody tests should never be combined with diagnostic tests.
Based on the 7-day total of cases (including probables) and the 7-day total of tests (net of those removed), the positivity rate in Alabama is 19.93% (verified by BamaTracker). If test data are accurate, Alabama has the worst infection rate in the country, perhaps second only to ND (20.03% yesterday). That is tragic considering the progress we were making in mid-August. In all honesty, I have little confidence in ADPH’s test data, so I believe we may be doing better than that.
Speaking of better, hospitalization data continues to improve and that is a very big deal. Only 872 patients are now being cared for in 101 reporting hospitals, the lowest number since the July 4th weekend. I’m confident this is good data because it is consistent with what I’m hearing from individual hospitals. For instance, UAB Hospital announced today that it is caring for 51 inpatients, fewer than half the number UAB treated at the peak of the summer. DCH has 52 current patients, also far fewer than a month ago.
You may have heard the charge circulating on certain social media platforms that only 6% of the 190,000 COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. were actually caused by COVID. That theory has been debunked by public health experts everywhere and, today, the State of Alabama officially joined the list of debunkers.
In a series of tweets (
ADPH explained that the CDC found that only 6% of COVID-19 deaths involved persons without any pre-existing or underlying health condition. Many “healthy” people have some underlying condition, like high blood pressure, high cholesterol, autoimmune disorders and pregnancy. Indeed, 40% of Americans are obese, which is considered an underlying condition. That does not diminish the fact that COVID-19 was the precipitating cause of death, as certified on the death certificate. Utter nonsense. Now, for the totals:
8/21 - 1,183
8/22 - 900
8/23 - 528
8/24 - 1,650
8/25 - 532
8/26 - 2,012
8/27 - 1,769
8/28 - 1,162
8/29 - 1,704
8/30 - 1,346
8/31 - 823
9/1 - 1,558
9/2 - 623
9/3 - 1,046
Jefferson (98), Lee (77) and Tuscaloosa (76) were the case leaders today.