September 27, 2021
Over the 4 days since my last report, ADPH has recorded 7,733 new cases in Alabama and 227 additional deaths. That compares with 10,446 new cases and 204 deaths over the same 4 days last week, which equates to a 26% decline in new cases and an 11% increase in deaths. Meanwhile, our hospitalization rate (as of yesterday) is 15.7 patients per reporting hospital, a 4.8% decline from 16.2 patients per hospital at the time of my last report.
In September and early October last year, Alabama’s Covid-19 cases and hospitalizations were in a temporary trough. For instance, exactly one year ago (9/27/2020), (i) there were 730 new cases (vs. 1,594 today); (ii) the 7-day average was 1,051 cases per day (vs 2,554 per day today); and (iii) the hospitalization rate was just 7.6 patients per hospital (vs 15.7 per hospital today). Beginning October 12, 2020, however, cases began to rise steadily, eventually peaking at over 4,200 per day between December 23 and January 10, while hospitalizations simultaneously peaked at over 30 patients per hospital.
I am referencing last year’s data in order to temper expectations that our recent improvements provide any justification for letting down our guard. As stated, the daily cases and hospitalizations last year at this time were roughly 40-45% of what they are today, and then the virus proceeded to spiral out of control. Starting from a higher base, if the Delta variant were to follow the same course, this winter could be unlike anything we have ever seen or experienced.
To be clear, there is far more reason to be hopeful today. For one thing, over half of Alabama’s population (52.4%) has received at least one dose of vaccine and 42.2% is fully vaccinated, numbers that are rising at the rate of about 12,000 more doses per day. In addition, after the deaths of more than 14,000 Alabamians, there is much more public awareness of the mortal threat posed by this virus, especially to age 65 and older individuals, 86% of whom have received at least one shot in Alabama.
Still, last year’s experience shows why it is more important than ever to remain vigilant today. At a time when over 1 of every 4 new infections is a child and children under age 12 still cannot protect themselves by vaccination, masks are critically important. In a recent analysis of 520 counties throughout the United States, the CDC found that pediatric cases rose more sharply in places without school mask requirements. And in a report that examined Arizona’s two most populous counties, schools without mask requirements were found to be 3.5 times as likely to experience an outbreak than schools with them.
It is a credit to our public school systems that 90% of them eventually adopted a mask-wearing requirement. This simple precaution is the main driver behind a 40% decline in school cases last week. Until children under 12 years old can get vaccinated, masks in school are just as important now as they were last week. Yet, some school districts have chosen to throw caution to the wind, rescinding the policy that protected their children. In the absence of vaccinations, masks are the only weapon children have to fight this virus. Now is not the time to unilaterally disarm them. The totals:
9/15 - 3,651
9/16 - 3,972
9/17 - 2,974
9/18 - 3,462
9/19 - 2,090
9/20 - 1,920
9/21 - 3,220
9/22 - 3,018
9/23 - 2,577
9/24 - 2,569
9/25 - 2,937
9/26 - 1,633
9/27 - 1,594