September 25, 2020 - Rule, Britannia
Rule, Britannia
September 25, 2020
“UK Adopts Tough Lockdown Measures Amid Alarming Second Wave of COVID-19”. That was the headline this morning in the New York Post, as Prime Minister Boris Johnson told Parliament that Britain had reached “a perilous turning point”, requiring new rules for the next 6 months - pubs, bars and restaurants forced to shut down early, indoor team sports banned, weddings limited to 15 guests, a $250 fine imposed for not wearing a mask and much larger fines for failure to self-isolate. The UK is pinning its hopes on these measures to avoid a full lockdown.
So, how does the UK compare to Alabama? Or Florida, whose governor announced today that all restrictions on bars and restaurants in that state will be lifted? The UK, whose population is 68 million, topped 6,000 cases in a single day for the first time yesterday. This is equivalent to an average infection rate of 88 persons per 1M population. Alabama, with 1,053 cases and 4.9 million residents, averaged 215 infections per 1M population yesterday while Florida averaged 136 infections per 1M. Since the start of the pandemic, the UK has averaged about 6,200 infections per 1M population, while Florida and Alabama have averaged in excess of 30,000 per 1M - nevertheless, it continues to be a struggle to convince people to wear a mask to the grocery store.
Alabama’s data today are alarming, to say the least. A record-breaking 2,452 daily cases (incl.1,654 probables), 1,055 of which reportedly arose in Tuscaloosa County. ADPH issued a statement, blaming the record increase on the receipt of a substantial volume of positive antigen tests from two large previously unknown and unidentified labs.
/photo/1. It is not clear from the statement when the specimens were tested. (There were also 19,415 tests reported by ADPH, an unexpectedly high number that the agency again attributed to catch up data).
I am speculating here, but I believe that some early positive antigen test results of University of Alabama students might be included in these data. The weekly U of A dashboard, released this afternoon, is actually quite encouraging: 63 infected students, faculty and staff, compared to 136 last week. Unfortunately, this updated dashboard is largely overshadowed by today’s ADPH dashboard.
ADPH’s statement also delves into its treatment of “probable” cases. After explaining that positive antigen tests represent one of two categories of probable cases, the statement notes that antigen tests tend to “show more false negative results than PCR tests”. No suggestion of false positives - which, of course, supports my oft-repeated position that it is wrong to label a positive antigen test as a “probable” case. It is a real case - false positive antigen test results rarely happen. If anything, the increasing use of antigen tests means the number of active cases is actually undercounted.
It is frustrating that we are still being surprised by explosive data from “unidentified labs” fully six months into this pandemic. It is equally frustrating that we are still having this argument whether real infections, verified by positive tests, should see the light of day rather than be relegated to “probable” status. Most frustrating of all is that many fellow Alabamians still refuse to do the things that are necessary to defeat this virus. The totals:
9/12 - 943
9/13 - 1,109
9/14 - 704
9/15 - 701
9/16 - 927
9/17 - 670
9/18 - 1,106
9/19 - 1,301
9/20 - 798
9/21 - 818
9/22 - 804
9/23 - 569
9/24 - 1,053
9/25 - 2,452
As mentioned, 1,055 “probables” came from Tuscaloosa County. Another 261 “probables” came from Baldwin County. Every county in the State saw a rising 14-day positivity rate.