September 23, 2021
Since my last letter on Monday, Alabama’s daily cases and hospitalizations have continued to decline, but deaths have risen to unprecedented levels. On Tuesday, ADPH reported 3,220 new cases, 724 fewer cases than last Tuesday. On Wednesday, the number was 3,018, 633 fewer cases than last Wednesday. And today, the number is 3,366, 606 fewer cases than last Thursday. The 7-day average is currently 2,864 new cases per day, a decline of 21% compared to 3,635 new cases per day this time last week.
As of today, there are 105 hospitals in Alabama caring for 1,731 confirmed Covid patients, or 16.5 patients per hospital. Again, this represents a significant improvement from earlier this month when hospitalizations peaked at nearly 28 patients per hospital. Just 10 days ago, our rate was 23.6 patients per hospital, 43% higher than it is today.
However, Alabamians are dying from Covid at an alarming and increasing rate. Two weeks ago today, Alabama was averaging 32 deaths per day. In the last 7 days, the average leaped to 135 deaths per day. Incredibly, since Monday, the daily average rose to 196 deaths per day, as 588 deaths were recorded in the last 3 days alone. In short order, with 7 days still left in the month, September is on pace to become the deadliest month of the pandemic, surpassing the 2,104 Alabamians who lost their lives in January. The speed and severity of the Delta variant’s attack on our State, from mid-July through mid-September, is simply mind boggling.
While the recent decline in cases and hospitalizations is encouraging, Alabama’s per capita death rate for the last 14 days is the highest in the nation - 50% higher than Florida, which is 2nd. Some experts, including the State Health Officer, have suggested that hospitalizations are dropping, in part, because of the steeply rising death rate. Maybe so - after all, since September 1, hospitalizations have dropped by 1,142 at the same time that 1,515 more Alabamians have died. And as of today, according to the Alabama Hospital Association, our hospitals have fewer ICU beds than patients who need them (1,612 beds & 1,614 patients).
It is important to remember, however, that nearly all of the recently reported deaths occurred more than a week or two ago. So, as horrific as these deaths are, we can be hopeful that Delta has begun to recede in Alabama. For example, the UA System’s weekly positive tests as of 9/19 are quite low - 38 students on the Tuscaloosa campus, 53 students at UAB and 20 students at UAH. Similarly, the Alabama public schools dashboard reported that, for the week ending today, the number of positive tests for students statewide declined from 6,382 to 3,802.(Birmingham dropped from 107 to 79 cases; Homewood from 10 to 8 cases; Hoover from 118 to 96; JeffCo from 273 to 228; Mtn Brook from 18 to 16; Trussville from 43 to 21; and Vestavia from 34 to 18).
So, although there is reason to be hopeful, it is no time to be foolish. Delta took advantage of Alabama’s low vaccination rate at a time when many people (myself included) were starting to act as though the pandemic had ended. To paraphrase a famous quote, removing your mask now is like throwing away your umbrella in a rainstorm because you are not getting wet. The totals:
9/11 - 4,494
9/12 - 1,794
9/13 - 2,792
9/14 - 3,944
9/15 - 3,651
9/16 - 3,972
9/17 - 2,974
9/18 - 3,462
9/19 - 2,090
9/20 - 1,920
9/21 - 3,220
9/22 - 3,018
9/23 - 2,577