September 20, 2021
During the last week, signs have emerged that the Delta variant is loosening its grip on Alabama. Although not dramatic, the improvements are a welcome relief for sure. Our 7-day average of new daily cases is 3,145, which is a 14% decline from the 7-day average of 3,673 on the same day last week. The decline accelerated slightly over the weekend, as we have recorded 7,462 new cases since Friday, a drop of 17.8% compared to the same three days last week.
In terms of hospitalizations, 101 hospitals reported having 1,898 patients, or an average of 18.8 patients per hospital. A week ago, the average was 23.6 patients per hospital, or 25% higher. Another hopeful sign is that the occupancy rate for intensive care units has declined to less than 100% capacity (1,475 ICU patients and 1,542 beds) and the percentage of ICU patients with Covid has dropped below 50%.
Unfortunately, a dramatic spike in deaths last week is a grim reminder of the consequences of dropping our guard too soon. Over the course of the pandemic, 13,210 Alabamians have died, which equates to more than 1 in every 380 Alabama residents, significantly worse than the national average of 1 in 500. In the last 7 days alone, we have seen 532 Covid deaths, 76.5 deaths per day, double the number from the week before. In just one horrific week, Alabama has leapfrogged Arizona, Massachusetts and Rhode Island in per capita deaths over the entire pandemic, moving from 8th to 5th in the nation, behind (in order) Mississippi, New Jersey, Louisiana & New York.
So, while the worst of the Delta variant may be behind us, we have seen this movie before. The Delta variant is not gone, not by a long shot. Generally speaking, the variant is simply making its way north - to Tennessee, West Va., Ohio and Iowa. The Delta variant seeks out and finds those pockets of the U.S. where vaccination rates are low and virus exposure is high. It is no accident, for example, that Cullman County, with its 32% vaccination rate and site of a mask-free political rally last month, has the State’s highest hospitalization rate today - 92/100K population. Cullman also has the 5th highest daily case count among the 67 counties in the State.
Pfizer made an announcement this morning that marks a significant turning point in the pandemic. Extensive data from multiple trials have found that the Pfizer vaccine is safe and highly effective in children aged 5 to 11 years. Children now account for more than one in five new cases, and more children were admitted to hospitals and intensive care units in the past few weeks than at any other time in the pandemic. Pfizer plans to apply by the end of the month for authorization to use its vaccine in these children. If regulatory review goes well, millions of elementary school students could be inoculated before Halloween.
Finally, good news for those of us with friends, relatives and colleagues with foreign citizenship who have been barred from entry into the United States since March, 2020. The Biden Administration announced today that travel restrictions will be lifted on citizens of 33 countries, starting in early November, with proof of vaccination before boarding and a negative test within three days prior to departure. Frankly, this action is long overdue. Of the 27 member countries of the E.U., only 7 have lower vaccination rates than the United States. Only 1 of the 27 - Bulgaria - has a lower vaccination rate than Alabama. The totals:
9/8 - 4,791
9/9 - 4,367
9/10 - 4,800
9/11 - 4,494
9/12 - 1,794
9/13 - 2,792
9/14 - 3,944
9/15 - 3,651
9/16 - 3,972
9/17 - 2,974
9/18 - 3,462
9/19 - 2,090
9/20 - 1,920