September 20, 2023 - What this Week's Data Tell Us

What this Week's Data Tell Us

September 20, 2023

The CDC’s weekly hospital admissions data for the week ending September 9 was posted last night. In Alabama, the number of new admissions for the latest week is identical to the number for the prior week - 410 admissions. Accordingly, the per capita rate of admissions in Alabama remains the same - 8.36 per 100K. 

Only two states - Florida (10.65 per 100K) and Arkansas (8.95) - reported hospitalization rates which are higher than Alabama’s rate. Considering that Governor DeSantis of Florida and the state’s surgeon general have publicly warned Florida residents under the age of 65 against vaccination, contrary to Federal guidance, it may not surprise you that Florida’s rate of hospitalization leads the nation again, as it has done throughout the summer. What is surprising - at least to me - is that every single one of Florida’s 67 counties now has a weekly hospitalization rate that exceeds the national average of 6.19 per 100K population. By comparison, Alabama actually has 20 counties (out of 67 counties in all) with hospitalization rates at or below the national average.

In the nation at large, hospitalizations rose 7.7% during the most recent week to 20,538, the first time since mid-March that new weekly hospital admissions have exceeded 20,000.  During the same week of 2022, new admissions stood at 31,571 nationally, and in 2021, the number was 80,166. So, the nation is in a far better place today than in the past.

Hospitalizations, of course, are a lagging indicator of what’s to come. Increases which coincide with the start of the school year have become par for the course based on the past three years of Covid activity, but are not expected to last long. In fact, Biobot Analytics, a company that tracks wastewater samples at 257 sites nationwide, said that the current average Covid levels across the United States are approximately 5% lower than they were last week, including significant declines in mid-Atlantic states, such as Virginia and Maryland. On the other hand, wastewater findings reflect a recent rise in Covid spread in parts of the Midwest.

In Alabama, there are only five wastewater facilities that measure coronavirus concentration levels in sewage: (i) Valley Creek - Bessemer; (ii) Cahaba River - Birmingham; (iii) Five Mile Creek - Fultondale; (iv) Turkey Creek - Pinson and (v) Village Creek - Birmingham. All five facilities are located in Jefferson County. In late July, all five facilities began to show sharply increasing levels which peaked in late August. SInce September 1, however, the levels in four of the five facilities - all but Village Creek - have declined modestly. This data supports the belief that new cases of Covid may be slowly declining in central Alabama. 

As we approach the winter months, I’d like to address a question I’ve been asked related to at-home tests. What should you do about at-home test kits nearing expiration or ones that have expired? Matthew Binnicker, Ph.D., director of the Clinical Virology Laboratory at Mayo Clinic, says that companies used to set the original test dates arbitrarily due to these diagnostic at-home tests being developed rapidly. Now that we are more than 3 years into the pandemic, manufacturers have had the opportunity to go back and assess the test performance over prolonged periods of time. And they’ve updated the expiration dates in many cases.

Here is Dr. Binnicker’s recommendation: “If you take a test that is beyond the expiration date, and the test is positive, that’s likely a reliable result, especially if you have a respiratory illness. If you get a negative result from a test that is beyond the expiration date, I’d recommend making sure the test doesn’t have an extended expiration date. And if it’s beyond that, then definitely go out and get another test or go in and have a health care provider collect a swab for a lab-based test before you rule out COVID-19.” The best way to determine if the expiration date has been extended is to check the FDA website here: https://www.fda.gov/medical-devices/coronavirus-covid-19-and-medical-devices/home-otc-covid-19-diagnostic-tests 

Hopefully, with updated vaccinations now available, we will not see a winter surge like we have in the past. The recent trend in Alabama suggests that a seasonal decline in cases and hospitalization rates, which we have experienced in past autumns, has begun. Nevertheless, we must not take our eye off the ball because the brutal winter months are just around the corner. Now is the time to protect yourself by getting the new updated vaccine. Stay safe everyone.