September 2, 2020 - Curiouser
Curiouser
September 2, 2020
The situation at ADPH is getting curiouser and curiouser. The agency reported 623 new cases (incl. 537 probables) and 4,776 tests today. After recording -0- tests yesterday (never updated), the average number of tests during the last 7 days is 2,522 while the 7-day average of cases is 1,283. That means the 7-day average positivity rate is now 43.71%, more than twice the highest rate Alabama has ever witnessed. Excluding probable cases, the rate is still 34.51%. Of course, these numbers are unsustainable and absurd.
In a series of tweets (
), ADPH addressed the issue of high probable cases, attributing the increase to the emergence of antigen tests, which are faster and less expensive than PCR tests. As recommended by experts, ADPH classifies positive antigen tests as probable cases and treats them the same as confirmed cases for all intents and purposes.
Unlike PCR tests, antigen tests do not require lab analysis because they do not rely on DNA evidence of the virus. Instead, they identify proteins that are common to the virus and easily detectable. According to the Mayo Clinic, “A positive antigen test result is considered very accurate, but there's an increased chance of false-negative results — meaning it's possible to be infected with the virus but have a negative result. Depending on the situation, the doctor may recommend a PCR test to confirm a negative antigen test result.” Bottom line: despite the label, a probable case is nothing less than a real case because antigen tests rarely produce false positives, only false negatives. If anything, the number of cases is understated.
As I ponder today’s weekly positivity rate of 43.71% (verified by BamaTracker), why does September 2 feel so much like April 2? Not much has changed. 1,164 Americans died yesterday and we’re on track for more than 1,000 again today. We have entered the 6th month of this quasi-lockdown, tens-of-thousands dead, millions-of-jobs lost, school-on-Zoom COVID debacle, with seemingly no end in sight. On July 8, when the U.S. surpassed 3 million cases, forecasters predicted the death toll would eclipse 200,000 by Election Day. With more than 6.2 million cases and 189,000 dead, it is shocking, but somehow not surprising, that forecasters now predict more than 265,000 Americans will perish by Election Day. In ... just ...8 ...months.
Between 1861-1865, 235,000 Union and Confederate soldiers died in combat during the Civil War, the worst tragedy ever to be inflicted upon our nation. It’s almost certain the U.S. will exceed that number by the first week of October. The totals:
8/20 - 971
8/21 - 1,183
8/22 - 900
8/23 - 528
8/24 - 1,650
8/25 - 532
8/26 - 2,012
8/27 - 1,769
8/28 - 1,162
8/29 - 1,704
8/30 - 1,346
8/31 - 823
9/1 - 1,558
9/2 - 623