September 19, 2020 - U.S. Deaths Reach 200,000
U.S. Deaths Reach 200,000
September 19, 2020
Alabama posted its highest total of new cases and tests in over 2 weeks today, proving again that robust testing is the key to identifying and isolating infections. There were 1,301 reported cases (incl. 145 probables) vs. 1,106 yesterday - an 18% increase. There were also 9,412 tests performed vs. 7,757 yesterday - a 21% increase. In an interview on WBRC-TV, Dr. Karen Landers of ADPH attributed this increase to the Labor Day weekend. Perhaps so, but it should be noted that our positivity rate actually fell from 14.62% to 14.1%, which is the lowest since the end of August. That is due to the increased testing in recent days.
While the rise in cases is troubling, I am more concerned about the appearance of rising hospitalizations. ADPH received reports from 90 hospitals (customarily light weekend reporting) showing 747 current patients. Yesterday, there were 744 patients in 104 reporting hospitals. That means there were 3 more patients but 14 fewer reporting hospitals. This is the first noteworthy increase in hospitalizations in quite some time, which could be just one-day statistical noise ... or not. We’ll see next week.
Alabama’s higher recent case count is indicative of an increase in cases nationally. Yesterday, there were 51,345 new cases in the U.S., the second highest daily total in over a month (Aug. 15) and the total today is on track to be even higher. According to the Washington Post, new cases in the U.S. rose 16.5% over the prior week; total deaths rose 64.5% over the same period; and tests also rose 8.1%; and the average positivity rate for the country was 5.6%. The states with the fastest growing cases, when adjusted for population, include the Dakotas, Wisconsin, Utah, Oklahoma and Missouri.
According to Johns Hopkins, the U.S. has already topped at least 199,000 deaths and is virtually certain to hit 200,000 today. That is a stunning reminder of how badly this pandemic has been bungled. Remember when we were told on Feb. 26 to expect cases to be “down to close to zero in a couple of days”? How about the assurances in April that the coming warm weather will kill the virus and “it will miraculously go away”? A Yale University study in JAMA (Journal of American Medical Assn) concluded in July that confirmed U.S. deaths due to the coronavirus is substantially lower than the true tally. https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/01/official-us-coronavirus-death-toll-is-a-substantial-undercount-of-actual-tally-new-yale-study-finds.html
If the U.S. death toll is 200,000 or perhaps more than that, it is a tragedy like no other in my lifetime. Most people who died did so alone, outside the presence of their loved ones, and we must never forget them. The totals:
9/6 - 511
9/7 - 659
9/8 - 633
9/9 - 811
9/10 - 1,148
9/11 - 1,138
9/12 - 943
9/13 - 1,109
9/14 - 704
9/15 - 701
9/16 - 927
9/17 - 670
9/18 - 1,106
9/18 - 1,301
The counties with 14-day positivity rates over 20% include Clay (30.07%), Cleburne (23.05%), Chilton (21.08%), and Franklin (20.96%).