September 18, 2020 Politics and Science - Part 2
Politics and Science - Part 2
September 18, 2020
Alabama reported a sharp increase in new cases today - 1,106 (incl. 385 probables) vs. 670 cases yesterday. There was an equally sharp increase in tests - 7,757 vs. 4,046 yesterday. As a result, our 7-day average positivity rate fell below 15% (14.62% to be exact) for the first time in September. Also for the first time this month, Alabama is not among the top 5 states in the country for highest weekly positivity rate. That is what more robust testing data will accomplish.
Hospitalizations remained stable - 744 statewide patients in 104 reporting hospitals, an increase in 4 patients with the same number of hospitals reporting. Sadly, there were also 27 deaths (incl. 7 probables).
The UA System reported weekly cases on its three campuses and the news is favorable. The Tuscaloosa campus saw 119 student infections and 19 faculty/staff vs. 294 students and 13 faculty/staff last week. UAB also saw a decrease in student infections from 27 to 18 and a slight increase in faculty/staff infections from 7 to 10. UAH’s student infections increased from 11 to 19 and there was a single faculty/staff infection.
The big news out of the CDC is the sudden reversal of its previous guidance on testing persons who are exposed to the virus but are not symptomatic. After the NY Times reported yesterday that White House officials with no scientific backgrounds were responsible for recommendations to States that such persons “do not necessarily need a test”, the CDC now says in no uncertain terms, “You need a test.” There is no word yet whether Alabama’s testing criteria will be altered to conform with the new guidance.
The ongoing political battles between the White House and the scientific community might be taking a toll on public trust. In a new survey from Pew Research Center, 51% of U.S. adults now say they would definitely or probably get a vaccine to prevent COVID-19 if it were available today; nearly as many (49%) say they definitely or probably would not get vaccinated. Intent to get a COVID-19 vaccine has fallen from 72% since May, a 21 percentage point drop. When asked about the pace of the vaccine approval process, 78% said their greatest concern is that it will move too fast, without fully establishing safety and effectiveness. President Trump’s recent rebuke of the CDC’s Director Redfield, who predicted a less rosy timetable for vaccine approvals and production than the President, could be a contributing factor. The 14-day totals:
9/5 - 1,410
9/6 - 511
9/7 - 659
9/8 - 633
9/9 - 811
9/10 - 1,148
9/11 - 1,138
9/12 - 943
9/13 - 1,109
9/14 - 704
9/15 - 701
9/16 - 927
9/17 - 670
9/18 - 1,106
Forty-six counties have 14-day positivity rates that declined today while twenty-one had rates that increased. Jefferson County led the way with 124 cases (incl. 11 probables).