September 17, 2020 - Politics and Science
Politics and Science
September 17, 2020
Once again, new reported cases and tests moved in tandem today - unlike yesterday, however, both cases and tests dropped. There were 670 cases (incl. 96 probables), a decline of 27% from yesterday (927 cases). Meanwhile, there were 4,046 tests, a 34% decline from yesterday (6,150 tests). There was a similar decline in the 7-day moving averages of both cases and tests.
Our 7-day average positivity rate is 15.81% today, which marks the 23rd consecutive day that the rate has exceeded 15%. For the first time since mid-August, our positivity rate exceeds South Dakota; now, we are second only to Idaho (based on yesterday’s data).
Hospitalizations remained steady at 740 in 104 reporting hospitals, compared to 757 in 105 hospitals yesterday. In addition, there were 9 deaths (incl. 2 probables).
In the continuing saga known as the CDC, the NY Times confirmed earlier reporting that the much-criticized CDC guidance last month that persons should not get tested if they were exposed to the coronavirus but do not yet exhibit symptoms, was not written by CDC scientists. Instead, this revised guidance was written by political appointees in the White House and Dept of H.H.S., who “dropped” it into the CDC website over the objections of the CDC’s infectious disease experts. The question of the CDC’s independence has taken on new urgency as the U.S. death toll approaches 200,000.
It is worth noting that the ADPH website advises that persons with symptoms should get tested, but asymptomatic persons who have been exposed to the virus should wait 3-4 days before getting tested. The State’s official criteria for being tested by the State Lab draws a similar distinction. Except in the case of persons with underlying medical conditions or disabilities, and residents of congregate housing facilities, asymptomatic persons can be tested by the State Lab only on a case-by-case basis.
As we move into the fall, the issue of available testing will likely come to a head. In Europe, where the fall arrives earlier than in Alabama, the “second wave” has already arrived. According to the World Health Organization, weekly cases in Europe now exceed those reported when the pandemic first peaked there in March. In France, the per capita rate of new cases over the last 7 days is 91 per 100K population, compared to 10 per 100K in early August. Britain’s Health Minister just announced a new lockdown, so two million people in northeastern England will not be allowed to meet with anyone outside their households. Similar reports are emerging in central Europe.
This is what happens when complacency sets in … and it can happen fast. Just ask New York City, which still suffers from PTSD after the spring. Yes - cases are slowly declining in Alabama, but so is testing. If you are one of those who enjoys applying a political overlay to data analysis (like the authors of the recent CDC guidance on testing), then beware. This virus has a mind of its own. October just might be the cruelest month. The totals:
9/4 - 1,108
9/5 - 1,410
9/6 - 511
9/7 - 659
9/8 - 633
9/9 - 811
9/10 - 1,148
9/11 - 1,138
9/12 - 943
9/13 - 1,109
9/14 - 704
9/15 - 701
9/16 - 927
9/17 - 670
Thirty-eight counties saw their 14-day average positivity rates increase while twenty-nine saw them decline. Of the 10 most populous counties, all but Mobile, Montgomery and Lee counties experienced rising positivity rates.