September 14, 2020 - Vaccines: State of Affairs
Vaccines: State of Affairs
September 14, 2020
Cases are down today and so are tests; in other words, not much has changed. There were 704 cases (incl. 200 probables) - well below the 1,085-case average for the prior 4 days. That is an encouraging sign just one week after Labor Day. But, there were only 4,164 reported tests - also well below the 5,413 daily average for tests over the last 7 days. Consequently, the all-important 7-day positivity rate barely budged - 16. 4% compared to 16.57% yesterday. Alabama continues to have the highest infection rate in the Southeast and third highest in the nation.
I know. People say our cases are declining. I’m reminded of the President’s famous statement on May 15, “When you test, you find something is wrong with people. If we didn’t do any testing, we would have very few cases.” Are cases really declining? Our 7-day average for cases is now 927; it is worth remembering that Alabama went 3 full months before exceeding that 7-day average for the first time on the final day of June. This is no time to let our guards down.
The current hospitalization rate remains pretty stable with 793 confirmed patients in 105 hospitals. Although that is 3 more patients than yesterday, there were 11 more reporting hospitals. The rates of hospital admissions and discharges have been in equilibrium for quite some time.
It’s almost October, so let’s talk a moment about vaccines. There are 3 potential vaccines currently in Phase 3 trials in the U.S. - Moderna, Pfizer and AstraZeneca. Until recently, Moderna was expected to be the first to complete Phase 3 but it has run into some patent issues and its timetable seems to have slipped. AstraZeneca briefly halted its global trials on Sept. 6 after one volunteer developed inflammation. Although AstraZeneca’s trial in the U.K. resumed on Sept. 12 after an investigation, its trials in other countries remain on hold.
At the moment, the Pfizer vaccine (in partnership with German and Chinese companies) appears to hold the most hope for completion by early November. On Sept. 12, Pfizer announced an expansion of its U.S. trial to 43,000 participants. If proven to be both safe and effective, Pfizer’s vaccine will become available by the end of the year and the company expects to manufacture over 1.3 billion doses worldwide by the end of 2021. The totals:
9/1 - 1,558
9/2 - 623
9/3 - 1,046
9/4 - 1,108
9/5 - 1,410
9/6 - 511
9/7 - 659
9/8 - 633
9/9 - 811
9/10 - 1,148
9/11 - 1,138
9/12 - 943
9/13 - 1,109
9/14 - 704
Yesterday, I posted the 5 counties with positivity rates above 20%. Among Alabama’s 67 counties, there are 5 with positivity rates below 5%: Monroe (3.07%), Chambers (3.49%), Greene (3.88%), Barbour (3.99%), and Tallapoosa (4.22%). In addition, there are 30 counties with positivity rates between 5% and 10%, including Morgan, Lee, Mobile & Tuscaloosa.