September 12, 2023 - Rising Hospitalizations Yet Silver Lining
Rising Hospitalizations Yet Silver Lining
September 12, 2023
The Covid hospital admissions data reported by the CDC last night relates to the weekly period ending September 2. I would characterize this most recent data as containing both bad news as well as a silver lining.
The bad news is that hospital admissions rose 8.7% nationally last week to 18,871. That is the highest number of admissions in a single week in 6 months - since March 11, to be exact. In Alabama, there were 410 admissions during the week - an 8.5% increase - which is comparable to the rise in national hospital admissions. You would have to go back to the beginning of February to find that many hospital admissions in a single week in Alabama. Our state’s 8.36 admissions per 100K population remains the second highest rate in the nation, behind only Florida with a per capita rate of 11.81 admissions per 100K.
If there is a silver lining to this bad news, however, it is that the rate of increase is slowing down, both nationally as well as in Alabama. Hospital admissions rose 21% nationally during the week ending August 12, followed by weekly rises of 18% and 15%, but only 8.7% in the most recent data ending September 2. The trend in Alabama is much more dramatic. After rising 47% during the week ending August 19, and 19% the following week, admissions rose just 8.5% in the most recent data.
Every Covid hospitalization is, of course, very distressing to the person and family affected. After all, the Covid-19 pandemic has left a legacy which casts a long shadow - approximately 7,000,000 people have died of Covid-19 globally, of whom approximately 1,140,000 (or 16%) are Americans. And despite having the world’s most advanced health care system, the United States has suffered 16% of the world’s Covid-19 deaths, four times more than its 4% share of the world’s population, according to the World Health Organization.
Yet, the human species is resilient and we have come a long way. While the recent rise in Covid cases and hospitalizations is certainly reason to be concerned, it is a far cry from prior waves. For example, during the first week of September, there were 675 new hospital admissions. And in early September 2021, there were 2,625 new weekly admissions, fueled by the more deadly Delta variant. I am hopeful that the data next week will see a decline in hospitalizations, resembling the seasonal pattern the last two years.
We can protect ourselves and our families by staying current on our vaccinations. Yesterday, the Food and Drug Administration approved new monovalent vaccines produced by Moderna and Pfizer for people 12 and older, and under an emergency use authorization for children ages 6 months to 11 years old. A panel of advisers to the CDC is expected to recommend the rollout of these vaccines today, and the Director of the CDC will likely follow suit immediately. The advisory panel will also consider recommending a vaccine produced by Novavax that is not an mRNA vaccine. All three vaccines should be available at your local pharmacy perhaps as early as the end of this week.
I will continue to monitor the weekly data and I plan to drop another newsletter this time next week. Stay well.
Thank you!