September 12, 2020 - CDC Under Siege
CDC Under Siege
September 12, 2020
The daily report from ADPH shows 943 new cases (incl. 217 probables) and 5,230 reported tests. Alabama’s daily average of new cases over the last 7 days is 835 per day; the daily average of tests over the same period is 5,293. In addition, there were 17 more deaths (incl. 4 probables).
There are two competing ways to evaluate these data. The daily average of new cases has declined 25% since the first week of September and the average is now lower than it has been since late June. On the other hand, when adjusted for population, Alabama has recorded 120 new cases per 100K population over the last 7 days, which ranks 5th highest in the nation, behind only the Dakotas, Iowa and Oklahoma. That is consistent with Alabama’s overall track record - when adjusted for population, Alabama has the 5th highest daily average of new cases in the nation (2,839 per 100K population) since the start of the pandemic.
Turning to the test data, Alabama’s daily average of tests has been shockingly low for quite some time - in fact, one must go back to early June to find a time when the daily volume of tests was this low. Some people surmise that the decline in cases is a direct consequence of the sharp decline in testing. Meanwhile, our average infection rate for the last 7 days (a/k/a positivity rate) now stands at 15.22%, which is higher than all but three states.
I mention these competing interpretations of the data in order to highlight an important point. Scientific data often can be interpreted in multiple, sometimes contradictory, ways. To make sense of such data, it is critically important for the data source to be trustworthy. Before the COVID-19 crisis, the reputations of the CDC and other federally funded scientific agencies were considered impeccable. Since the end of World War II, the CDC in Atlanta has been the gold standard in public health, its infectious disease guidance considered supreme among all national agencies.
Over the last 6 months, however, the CDC’s reputation for transparency has taken numerous hits. The coup de grace might just be yesterday’s revelation that political appointees in the Trump Administration have repeatedly caused the CDC to revise, delay and even abandon coronavirus reports. https://www.politico.com/news/2020/09/11/exclusive-trump-officials-interfered-with-cdc-reports-on-covid-19-412809
The scandal involves the CDC’s public Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Reports, known as “the holiest of the holy” agency documents because they are written to inform scientists and public health experts of the latest trends. According to reports supported by emails, a former Trump campaign official who now oversees HHS communications, Michael Caputo, reportedly coerced the CDC on many occasions to alter these reports to make them conform with the President’s public statements on COVID-19. On the eve of vaccine development, this news is bound to be an obstacle to public acceptance. The totals:
8/30 - 1,346
8/31 - 823
9/1 - 1,558
9/2 - 623
9/3 - 1,046
9/4 - 1,108
9/5 - 1,410
9/6 - 511
9/7 - 659
9/8 - 633
9/9 - 811
9/10 - 1,148
9/11 - 1,138
9/12 - 943