October 8, 2020 - Urban-Rural Divide
Urban-Rural Divide
October 8, 2020
There were only 557 new cases today (incl 185 probables), which is the 5th lowest total since June 28 - a period of 102 days. There were also only 3,896 tests, which is nearly half the 7-day average of 6,868. Our positivity rate in the last 7 days is 13.06%, which places Alabama in the top 10 states.
The saddest news is there were 36 more deaths (incl 6 probables), which is the 3rd worst day total since August 1. Hospitalizations remain in a tight range - 754 confirmed statewide patients in 105 reporting hospitals.
A deep dive into the county data leads to interesting conclusions. Half of Alabama’s counties (33 of 67) have 14-day positivity rates over 15%, three times the recommended rate for an open economy, but none is among the 9 most populous counties in the State. The 3 most urban counties in the State are among the 12 counties with the best positivity rates (Jefferson - 9.5%; Mobile - 10.7%; and Madison - 11.1%).
In addition, 7 of the 10 worst counties for positivity rate are at least 75% white - Covington (35% rate - 85% white; Geneva (26% rate - 87% white); Randolph (25% rate - 75% white); DeKalb (25% rate - 85% white); Clay (23% rate - 78% white); Franklin (23% rate - 90% white); Limestone (23% rate - 80% white). In contrast, only 3 of the 10 best counties for positivity rate are at least 75% white (Lauderdale, Colbert and Cullman). The 3 overall best counties in the State are Black Belt counties - Greene (7% rate - 89% black); Perry (8.4% rate - 69% black); and Sumter (8.7% rate - 75% black).
In other words, statistically, Alabama’s urban counties are doing better than rural counties and predominantly black counties are doing better than predominantly white ones. I’ll just leave it there. The totals:
9/25 - 2,452
9/26 - 933
9/27 - 730
9/28 - 662
9/29 - 571
9/30 -1,147
10/1 -1,043
10/2 - 954
10/3 -1,682
10/4 - 789
10/5 - 544
10/6 - 764
10/7 - 941
10/8 - 557