October 7, 2021
Exactly one year ago today, I wrote the following: “I feel like I am falling into the same trap I cautioned against when I began writing about Alabama’s COVID data. The Complacency Trap begins by normalizing grim data, then rationalizing that at least it isn’t getting worse. The result is that we become desensitized - or even worse, dehumanized.”
Alabama has clearly turned the corner on the Delta variant. Daily case counts and hospitalizations continue to tumble from their terrible peak at the end of August. Since Monday, 4,083 new cases (including 1,262 today) have been reported, down from 5,827 cases for the same 3 days last week. The 7-day average has reached 1,291 cases per day, down 38% from 2,080 cases per day last week. Similarly, Alabama’s hospitalization rate has declined from 12.5 patients per reporting hospital one week ago to 10.1 patients per hospital today, a decline of 19%.
This trend is good and it is getting better. Even our 7-day average death rate - 54 deaths per day - is a vast improvement from what it was 2 weeks ago - 135 deaths per day. It is a relief to see the Delta variant finally departing, but I am reminded that 891 Alabamians had died of Covid by this date last year and 14,675 Alabamians have perished as of today. That leads me to ask the same question which bothered me back then. Has infection and death become so normalized that all the men, women and children who have succumbed to this disease have become mere statistics?
So, as Delta recedes from our daily consciousness, we cannot afford to grow complacent. Only 43.2% of our entire population has been fully vaccinated so far, yet we are administering just 11,500 more doses per day. Although 87% of Alabama’s age 65+ population have received at least one dose, only 37% of the age 12-17 population have done so. Pfizer has applied for emergency use authorization of its vaccine for children aged 5-11, and it is anticipated that such approval may be forthcoming as soon as the end of this month. That certainly will be an important milestone, but will it be enough to prevent the next surge when another variant comes along? Or, as autumn turns to winter, will we once again fall into the Complacency Trap?
According to a study published today in the medical journal Pediatrics, over the course of this pandemic, more than 120,000 children in the United States have had a parent or caregiver die from Covid. This finding suggests that the ongoing pandemic, which has claimed more than 700,000 American lives, could leave an enduring mark on tens of thousands of children. That’s why everyone must get vaccinated. That’s also why I support the mandatory vaccination policies of companies like United and Southwest Airlines, and health care systems like Kaiser Permanente and many others throughout the nation. People who complain they must be given the choice to refuse the vaccine should be reminded that there are tens of thousands of children who were not given the choice to lose a parent. The totals:
9/25 - 2,937
9/26 - 1,633
9/27 - 1,594
9/28 - 1,984
9/29 - 2,141
9/30 - 1,702
10/1 - 1,845
10/2 - 1,480
10/3 - 892
10/4 - 736
10/5 - 1,549
10/6 - 1,272
10/7 - 1,262