October 7, 2020 - Complacency Trap
Complacency Trap
October 7, 2020
I feel like I am falling into the same trap I cautioned against in May, when I began writing about Alabama’s COVID data. The Complacency Trap begins by normalizing grim data, then rationalizing that at least it isn’t getting worse. The result is that we become desensitized - or even worse, dehumanized.
I was reminded of the Complacency Trap when I read that Alabama reported 941 more daily cases (incl 203 probables) and 21 deaths today. The case count is a tick below the 7-day average of 960. My first thought was, at least it isn’t getting worse.
But, why isn’t it getting better? Why has our 7-day average failed to drop below 854 new cases on any day in over 3 months?
I remember the shock I felt on June 24, when there were 967 reported cases, more than twice the number that was reported 2 days earlier (433). There were 25 deaths that day, not much different from the 21 deaths we learned about today. As of June 24, COVID had taken the lives of 891 Alabamians. Today that number exceeds 2,600. Why don't I feel the same wave of emotion I felt then? Has infection and death become normalized? Or, as Stalin observed, have the men, women and children who succumbed to this disease become statistics?
With a 13.23% weekly positivity rate, Alabama has climbed back into the nation’s top 10 in that category, higher than any other Southern state (Mississippi has improved due to a spike in testing). With 3,292 cases per 100K population, we are still 4th highest in per capita cases overall, slightly behind Florida, Mississippi and Louisiana. Admittedly, some western and midwestern states are rapidly gaining on us, but our horrific summer gave us a lead that we may never relinquish.
Which illustrates my point - just because our plight has improved since July doesn’t make it good. It’s true that COVID patients are no longer threatening to overwhelm our best hospitals, which is a good thing (777 current hospitalizations are marginally more than the State’s 694 patients on June 24, but almost half the peak of 1,600 in early August). Of course, there is no assurance that our hospitals won’t fill up again as the autumn progresses. If that happens, we'll likely be caught by surprise because we are not testing nearly as much as we did then (our 6,968 daily average for tests over the last 7 days compares to the daily average of 13,320 in mid-August). Another casualty of the Complacency Trap. The totals:
9/24 - 1,053
9/25 - 2,452
9/26 - 933
9/27 - 730
9/28 - 662
9/29 - 571
9/30 - 1,147
10/1 - 1,043
10/2 - 954
10/3 - 1,682
10/4 - 789
10/5 - 544
10/6 - 764
10/7 - 941
JeffCo is one of only 6 counties with a 14-day positivity rate under 10%. Both Lee and Tuscaloosa counties have rates over 14%.