October 4, 2021 - The $64,000 Question

The $64,000 Question

October 4, 2021

In the past week in Alabama, new daily cases fell 41.2%; new daily deaths fell 44.8%; and Covid-related hospitalizations fell 19.9%. The downward slope in new cases continued over this weekend, with 3,108 cases reported in the last 3 days, a 40% drop compared to the same period last week. However, the decline in the hospitalization rate has slowed - 11.9 patients per reporting hospital on Friday compared to 11.4 per hospital today.

The 7-day average in reported deaths has also declined from a peak of 135 deaths per day on September 23 to 64 deaths today. One reason for the improvement: intensive care units are less overrun with Covid patients. The Alabama Hospital Association reported that there are currently 153 unoccupied ICU beds throughout the State.

With the exception of the slowing decline in Alabama’s hospitalization rate, all of this is good news, of course, but no reason to celebrate. In a head-spinning turn of events, south Alabama is leading the way in the State’s recovery. In Mobile and Baldwin counties, for example, new daily cases have dropped almost 60% in the last 14 days. In parts of the Wiregrass, such as Escambia and Pike counties, the decline is nearing 80%. In fact, in nearly every county of the State, the daily rate in both cases and hospitalizations has declined over the last 14 days.

The $64,000 question is, will the improvement continue or will it plateau? We are currently averaging 1,540 new cases per day, which is less than one-third of the daily cases at the end of August, but still more than 7 times the number we saw in late June. David Rubin, an epidemiologist who monitors coronavirus trends at Children's Hospital of Philadelphia, had this to say about the recent improvement in pockets of the Deep South: “In any epidemic wave, you have to have susceptibles. Between increasing vaccinations and the sheer number of people infected, they likely reached a level where they don’t have any susceptibles left, so the virus is being blocked.”

Dr. Rubin’s comment left me pondering one question, in particular. The 1918 flu pandemic resulted in the deaths of 50 million people around the globe, including 675,000 Americans (i.e. 1 of every 74 deaths). In contrast, only 4.8 million people worldwide have died of Covid, yet more than 700,000 Americans have perished (i.e. 1 of every 7 deaths). Despite being the wealthiest nation on Earth, a country with the finest research and medical facilities, where the best vaccines were invented, why is it that 1 of every 7 Covid deaths throughout the world is an American?

The answer to that question is no doubt multifaceted and books will be written about it. To me, it is impossible to understand, let alone accept, the fact that 42 nations on Earth have a higher vaccination rate than the United States of America. Or that 67 nations have a vaccination rate higher than Alabama’s.

For a myriad of reasons, a program of voluntary compliance has led to massive human tragedy, especially in the South, and even more specifically in Alabama. Since President Biden announced a series of vaccine mandates for federal employees, contractors and grant recipients, numerous corporations, nonprofits and local governmental agencies have followed suit. As a result, the nation may be gradually turning a corner. In the last week, an average of 831.5K doses per day were administered in the country, a 29% increase over the week before. And the U.S. administered more than 1.2 million doses on Saturday, the first time that has happened in over a month.

On the other hand, average daily inoculations in Alabama have ranged between 11,000 and 19,000 for over a month now, and the current 7-day average is at the low end of that range - just 12,200 doses per day. At a time when the State is emerging from one of the deadliest months of the pandemic, Alabama’s low vaccination rate defies comprehension. What’s more, the continued silence of Alabama’s political leaders, their refusal to do anything to amplify the message to get vaccinated, is simply inexcusable. The totals:

9/22 - 3,018

9/23 - 2,577

9/24 - 2,569

9/25 - 2,937

9/26 - 1,633

9/27 - 1,594

9/28 - 1,984

9/29 - 2,141

9/30 - 1,702

10/1 - 1,845

10/2 - 1,480

10/3 - 892

10/4 - 736