October 3, 2020 - Superspreader in the Rose Garden
Superspreader in the Rose Garden
October 3, 2020
This virus certainly abhors predictability. Less than 24 hours after looking “average and thoroughly undramatic”, Alabama’s daily case count took off like a rocket, with 1,682 new cases (incl. 945 probables), increasing 76% over yesterday. The spike was accompanied by a similar spike in tests - 10,361, increasing 50% over yesterday. The sharp rise in the number of probables is fueled by a backlog of positive tests in southeast Alabama, as 445 probables were reported out of Houston, Dale & Geneva counties alone.
The one-day positivity rate of 16.2% caused our weekly average positivity rate to jump to 13.03%, good for 11th in the nation. Today is the first time in 9 days that our weekly positivity rate has exceeded 13%. It is alarming that our neighbor to the west - Mississippi - has seen a major surge in recent days. In fact, Mississippi now has the highest positivity rate in the nation (29.35%).
Nationally, there were 51,403 new cases reported yesterday, marking only the 4th time since August 15 that the U.S. has exceeded 50,000 in a single day. We appear to be on track to top 50,000 cases again today.
The data is overshadowed by the news out of Washington, which is impossible to ignore. As of this writing, in addition to the President and First Lady, the list of confirmed infections includes 2 of Trump’s closest advisors (Hope Hicks and KellyAnne Conway); Trump’s national campaign manager (Bill Stepien); the GOP Party Chair (Ronna McDaniel); Trump’s debate sparring partner (Chris Christie); 3 GOP Senators - Mike Lee(UT); Thom Tillis(NC); and Ron Johnson(WI); and the President of Notre Dame. All signs point to a super spreader event where few attendees wore masks - the Rose Garden introduction of Supreme Court nominee, Amy Coney Barrett.
A press briefing by the President’s medical team at Walter Reed Hospital raised more questions than answers. According to one doctor, Trump is “doing very well”, but this rosy assessment was contradicted by the President’s chief of staff, Mark Meadows, who said, “The president’s vitals over the last 24 hours were very concerning .... We’re still not on a clear path to a full recovery.” The medical team indicated Trump may have been diagnosed on Wednesday, instead of Thursday night, as first believed. If true, this would be shocking since Mr. Trump attended campaign events both Wednesday night and Thursday without wearing a mask. The totals:
9/20 - 798
9/21 - 818
9/22 - 804
9/23 - 569
9/24 - 1,053
9/25 - 2,452
9/26 - 933
9/27 - 730
9/28 - 662
9/29 - 571
9/30 - 1,147
10/1 - 1,043
10/2 - 954
10/3 - 1,682
Houston Co. reported 339 cases (incl. 325 probables). Jefferson Co. had 142 cases (incl. 33 probables). The highest 14-day positivity rate in the State is Covington (32.67%) and the lowest is Greene (5.43%).