October 29, 2020 - Reported Cases Increase in 42 States
Reported Cases Increase in 42 States
October 29, 2020
Aside from two days last week when ADPH dumped a bunch of older positive test results, the case count today is the highest in over 3 weeks - 1,443 cases (incl 286 probables). Daily tests were slightly above average - 7,139 as compared to the 6,675 daily average. Our one-day positivity rate was 20.2% and the 7-day rolling average positivity rate is either 25% (as per Johns Hopkins), or 23% (as per BamaTracker) or 18-19% (excluding the older cases, which will begin to roll off, beginning tomorrow). By any measurement, Alabama is well within the highest 10 in the nation.
Alabama presents perhaps the clearest refutation of the specious claim that cases are high only because we’re doing a lot of testing. Our State currently ranks 5th highest in the nation in per capita cases, behind only the two Dakotas, Louisiana and Mississippi (we’re close to surpassing our neighbor to the west). On the other hand, we rank 44th in the nation in per capita tests (47th over the last 7 days). No state has a wider gap than Alabama between its national rankings of per capita cases and per capita tests. Alabama’s high case count is decidedly not because we do so much testing.
Four hours after the usual deadline (3:00 pm), ADPH had not reported today’s hospitalization data, which I find troubling. DCH now has 71 patients, up from 61 only 6 days ago, while the Huntsville Hospital system has 163 patients, up from 141 over the same 6 days. For the last week, Alabama’s hospitalizations has risen 21%, the same percentage rise as Wisconsin, and well above the national average of 12%.
The Washington Post is reporting that the U.S. topped 88,000 cases for the first time ever today, while the 7-day average exceeds 80,000 also for the first time. The surge now enveloping the country is different from the ones that preceded it. Last spring, the virus mostly haunted the Northeast and a few pockets of the Midwest. This summer, it targeted primarily Sunbelt states like Alabama, Texas and Arizona. Our current record surge transcends all geographic boundaries. Reports of new cases are increasing in 42 states, while 21 states have added more cases in the last 7 days than in any other comparable stretch of the pandemic. The totals:
10/16 -1212
10/17 -1288
10/18 - 964
10/19 - 859
10/20 -1043
10/21 -1146
10/22 -1390
10/23 -1287
10/24 -1178 - 1769
10/25 -1079
10/26 - 967
10/27- 1115
10/28 -1269
10/29 -1443
Jefferson led with 171 cases; Madison 90; Mobile 88; and Cullman 65. There were 40 counties with 14-day positivity rates over 20%; 12 over 30%; 2 over 40% and even 1 county that topped 50% (Lamar).
Here are the positivity rates for the 10 most populous counties in the State, in ascending order: Madison (9.82%); Lee (10.23%); Jefferson (13.76%); Baldwin (14.64%); Shelby (17.7%); Tuscaloosa (17.72%); Morgan (24.38%); Montgomery (24.97%): Calhoun (32.25%); Mobile (38.89% - includes last week’s data dump).