October 26, 2020 - Light Weekend Testing
Light Weekend Testing
October 26, 2020
ADPH’S dashboard is updated each day at 10:00 am, which means most of the data included in the daily update is derived from lab reports submitted to ADPH the previous day. Monday’s updates are typically lighter than other days because fewer tests are performed on Sundays. Today’s report held true to form.
There were 967 cases (incl 147 probables) and 5,028 tests added to the dashboard. That results in a one-day positivity rate of 19.23%. The case counts included in the last four Monday reports are as follows: (i) 10/19 - 859; (ii) 10/12 - 734; (iii) 10/5 - 544; and (iv) 9/28 - 662. Although the number of new cases fell by 112, as compared to yesterday, I suspect the decline may be attributable to lighter weekend testing.
You will continue to see variations in Alabama’s 7-day rolling average positivity rates on different tracking sites. These variations are caused by different ways in which the sites treat the data dumps last week. According to Johns Hopkins, the average statewide positivity rate for the last 7 days is 24%. BamaTracker shows the rate to be 22.33%. Since I decided to exclude all of the positive cases that were derived from tests not performed within a few days of the finding of positivity, my weekly rate is lower - somewhere between 16.9% and 18.25%.
Of Alabama’s 67 counties, there are now 36 counties that have weekly positivity rates above 20%; 11 counties with rates above 30%; and 2 counties (Lamar and Washington), where the positivity rates exceed 40%. There are 3 counties with rates below 10% - Lee (8.96%); Macon (9.54%); and Madison (9.9%).
Confirmed statewide hospitalizations have continued to rise. With 104 hospitals reporting, there were 967 patients (oddly the exact same number as the daily cases), which is an increase of 130 patients from just 5 days ago. Hospitalizations in Alabama have increased 37% since September 25, which is consistent with the nationwide increase of 40% in the past month. This increase is felt most acutely in rural America and in rural Alabama, where hospitals often lack the resources to effectively cope with a dramatic rise in patients.
There are now 66 COVID-19 patients at DCH Health System, a 24-patient increase in 8 days. Huntsville Hospital Health System has 151 patients, an increase of almost 50% in less than one month. This rate of increase will be monitored closely in the days and weeks to come. Here are the totals:
10/13 - 1117
10/14 - 784
10/15 - 1185
10/16 - 1212
10/17 -1288
10/18 - 964
10/19 - 859
10/20 -1043
10/21 -1146
10/22 -1390
10/23 -1287
10/24 -1178 - 1769
10/25 -1079
10/26 - 967
Jefferson County again led the way with 151 cases (weekly 13.2% positivity rate), followed by Tuscaloosa County with 69 (17.59% positivity rate) and Montgomery County with 48 (24% positivity rate).