October 25, 2020 - The Elephant in the Room
The Elephant in the Room
October 25, 2020
For the 6th consecutive day, Alabama reported more than 1,000 new cases - 1,079 (incl 144 probables) - and our State has averaged more new daily cases over the last 7 days than at any time since the first of August. There were just 6,774 tests, below our daily average, resulting in a one-day positivity rate of 15.9%. Alabama’s 7-day rolling average is between 16.5% and 17.6% (excluding all the Mobile facility cases reported on Friday that were derived from older tests). There are also 922 hospitalizations, as reported by 99 hospitals, little changed from yesterday.
A day after the U.S. set a record for daily confirmed infections - 83,757 - the country nearly matched it with 83,718 more cases on Saturday. Before that, the most cases reported in the United States on a single day was 77,362 on July 16. There is no doubt that the second wave has arrived in the United States, as it has in Alabama ... and it is getting worse.
In an echo of the Rose Garden reception on Sept. 26, as many as 4 aides to VP Pence reportedly tested positive for the virus in the last couple days. Those infected include Pence’s chief of staff and his body man, who accompanies the Vice-President throughout his day. Despite having regular sustained contact with these infected individuals, the Vice-President will fly to North Carolina for a person-to-person campaign event on Sunday and has no plans to quarantine next week.
Can anyone be surprised by this announcement or the ensuing consequences? When comparing rates of infection among states, it is impossible to ignore the elephant in the room. Of the 24 states with the highest positivity rates in the country (ranging from 7.4% to 38.2%), ALL BUT ONE voted for Donald Trump in 2016 (the lone exception being Nevada). At least 14 of those states saw more people hospitalized for the virus on a day in the past week than on any other day in the pandemic, according to the Covid Tracking Project.
On the other end of the spectrum, of the 12 states (plus the District of Columbia) with the lowest infection rates in the country (ranging from 0.55% to 4.2%), EVERY SINGLE ONE voted blue in 2016.
I thought of this astonishing correlation when I read a recent article in USA Today. The news organization examined the rate of increase in virus cases for the two weeks before and after four Trump campaign rallies conducted in Wisconsin, Minnesota and Pennsylvania. In Blue Earth Co., MN, the virus growth rate was 15% before the rally and grew to 25% afterwards. In Lackawanna Co., PA, the growth rate more than doubled. In Marathon Co., WI, cases surged 67% following the rally. And in Beltrami Co, MN, cases rose by 35%.
The country is paying a high price for these mask-free political rallies. The totals:
10/12 - 734
10/13 - 1117
10/14 - 784
10/15 - 1185
10/16 - 1212
10/17 -1288
10/18 - 964
10/19 - 859
10/20 -1043
10/21 -1146
10/22 -1390
10/23 -1287
10/24 -1178 - 1769
10/25 -1079
Jefferson County again led the way with 163 cases (incl 8 probables), followed by Madison - 70 cases (incl 1 probable) and Mobile - 67 (incl 2 probables). There are 37 counties with 14-day positivity rates above 20% and 11 with rates above 30%.
Hospitalizations up across the U.S., especially in rural areas; 41,000 patients nationwide, up 40% in past month; field hospitals in Wisconsin and Utah; ID hospital transferring patients to Seattle & Portland; Maury Medical Center in COlumbia, TN suspended all elective procedures.
FoxNews anchors - Bret Baier & Martha MacCallum - will quarantine at home after exposure on post-debate flight