October 24, 2020 - Probable Cases = Real Cases
Probable Cases = Real Cases
October 24, 2020
There were 2,360 cases reported in Alabama today (incl 1,329 probables) and 6,119 tests. However, for the second consecutive day, ADPH’s report includes a significant backlog of cases. Unlike yesterday, however, it is unclear how to treat this backlog for purposes of calculating the positivity rate. Today’s backlog is referred to as “1,182 positive results from a variety of facilities all over Alabama”. ADPH announced it would classify “a majority of these” as probable cases on 10/23 even though the tests were performed during April through September.
So, what does this mean? Well, as I said yesterday, these are real cases and should be treated as such in our State’s cumulative total, which now stands at over 183,000, surpassing Louisiana’s cumulative total for the first time. However, “a majority” of the backlog is derived from tests performed long ago, so they should not be taken into account in determining the current infection rate. A “majority” could be any number between 591 (50% of the backlog) and 1,182 (total backlog). Couldn’t ADPH be more specific?
When I calculated the positivity rate for today (positive cases divided by tests), I arrived at a one-day rate between 19.3% and 28.9%, depending on whether 50% or 100% of the backlog is excluded. The positivity rate for the last 7 days landed in a more narrow range - between 16.7% and 18% - depending again on whether 50% or 100% of the backlog is excluded. Either way, only SD, ID, WY, IA, KS, NE and possibly UT have worse positivity (a/k/a infection) rates than the State of Alabama, according to the COVID Tracking Project.
Confirmed hospitalizations have been creeping up all week until today, when they exploded. Only 99 hospitals reported today (compared to 106 yesterday) but the number of patients rose from 888 to 920. That is a 15% increase since last Saturday and is the highest number of reported hospitalizations since September 2. More cases inevitably lead to more hospitalizations, so we can expect to see a continued and rapid rise in patients in the days ahead. The totals:
10/11 - 816
10/12 - 734
10/13 - 1117
10/14 - 784
10/15 - 1185
10/16 - 1212
10/17 -1288
10/18 - 964
10/19 - 859
10/20 -1043
10/21 -1146
10/22 -1390
10/23 -1287
10/24 - Between 1,178 and 1,769
Of Alabama’s 67 counties, 36 of them (more than half) now have 14-day positivity rates in excess of 20%; 10 have rates in excess of 30%; and 2 have rates in excess of 40%. Only Lee County, with a positivity rate of 9.91%, is below 10%.