October 23, 2021 - Rising Again
Rising Again
October 23, 2021
Over the last 4 days, ADPH has reported 4,273 new cases (average 1,068 per day), a 7% increase over the 3,995 cases reported for the same 4 days last week. For each of the last 3 days, the daily case count is higher than the same day the prior week. It’s an ominous sign that Alabama’s recent improvement may have bottomed out and is starting to rise again. Our 7-day average of 874 cases per day is now the highest since October 13.
Our dropping hospitalization rate, a lagging indicator, does not yet show signs of leveling off, however. There are currently 500 confirmed patients in 97 reporting hospitals (5.2 patients per hospital). Last week at this time, there were 6.95 patients per hospital.
If you are a regular reader of this newsletter, you know I put great stock in seasonal comparisons to last year. That’s because our third wave, which remains our worst wave, gathered steam in mid-October 2020 on its way to a horrific peak last January. In the 6 weeks between September 6 and October 21 of last year, Alabama’s averaged between 880 to 1,050 cases per day. By November 1, the average rose to 1,376 cases per day, and by Thanksgiving, it more than doubled to 2,292 cases per day.
Last year, the Dakotas and Mountain states (Montana, Wyoming, Idaho) - states with few Covid restrictions in place - suffered particularly bad spikes in September and early October. The outbreak in those states then expanded to the Midwest and Deep South as the colder weather caused more people to gather indoors. The same thing might be happening this year, as Montana, Wyoming, Idaho & North Dakota have been among the leading hotspots in the nation throughout most of October.
Of course, a major difference between last year and this one is the availability of vaccines. It is believed that the reason New England states did not get hammered by the Delta variant this summer, like other parts of the country, is because of their high vaccination rates. In every New England state (except N.H.), at least 69% of the residents are now fully vaccinated. (Even N.H., the “Live Free or Die” state, has vaccinated 63% of its residents). In contrast, only 44.3% of Alabama’s residents are fully vaccinated, compared to the national average of 57%.
It is welcome news then that the Pfizer vaccine seems poised to receive emergency use approval for kids aged 5-11 by the first week of November. In documents submitted to the FDA advisory panel, Pfizer said its lower-dose vaccine (one-third the adult dose, smaller needle) showed 90.7% efficacy against symptomatic infection for such children. FDA approval will open vaccine eligibility to an estimated 28 million children in the U.S. and could represent an important turning point in the battle to limit transmission. The vaccine is expected to be administered to children primarily by pediatricians in the comfort and privacy of a doctor’s office.
Despite the impact of vaccines in dramatically reducing infectious childhood diseases, such as polio, tetanus, and diphtheria, resistance to the Covid vaccines shows no signs of abating in Alabama, which administered just 9,000 doses of vaccine per day last week. While children rarely contract severe cases of Covid, resulting in hospitalization and death, such cases are not unheard of. Moreover, children play a major role in transmission of the virus to older Americans.
Limiting transmission is critical to saving lives. In the past few weeks, Alabama leapfrogged New Jersey and Louisiana in per capita deaths from Covid since the start of the pandemic. With 313.6 deaths per 100K population, Alabama’s death rate now ranks 2nd in the nation - only Mississippi’s death rate is higher. In the last week alone, 305 more Alabamians have died from the virus, bringing our total to 15,406. If we are to avoid another potentially deadly surge this winter, limiting transmission is essential. Vaccines, mask-wearing and social distancing all play an important role. The totals:
10/10 - 653
10/11 - 467
10/12 -1,353
10/13 -1,016
10/14 -1,050
10/15 -1,143
10/16 - 786
10/17 - 544
10/18 - 338
10/19 - 961
10/20 - 665
10/21 - 1,065
10/22 - 1,598
10/23 - 945
Despite having a vaccination rate higher than 95 per cent, Harvard Business School has been forced to move its first and second year students to remote learning after a “substantial” outbreak of COVID.
Sept 28th 2021
https://summit.news/2021/09/28/despite-95-vaccination-rate-harvard-experiences-substantial-outbreak-of-covid/
CDC Director. ~3 months ago. Here is another link
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2021/08/06/cdc_director_vaccines_no_longer_prevent_you_from_spreading_covid.html#
From the CDC link you linked:
“The risk for SARS-CoV-2 infection in fully vaccinated people cannot be completely eliminated as long as there is continued community transmission of the virus. Early data suggest infections in fully vaccinated persons are more commonly observed with the Delta variant than with other SARS-CoV-2 variants. However, data show fully vaccinated persons are less likely than unvaccinated persons to acquire SARS-CoV-2, and infections with the Delta variant in fully vaccinated persons are associated with less severe clinical outcomes. Infections with the Delta variant in vaccinated persons potentially have reduced transmissibility than infections in unvaccinated persons, although additional studies are needed.”
We also have this happening in highly vaccinated states like Vermont.
“Vermont is the canary in the coal mine. Currently experiencing record cases, hospitalizations, and highest vaccination rates in the U.S. We are kidding ourselves if we think this Fall and Winter will be better than last… the data is indicating otherwise.”
https://twitter.com/joaquinlife/status/1451808392712900609?s=21
Associated Press: Despite having some of the highest vaccination rates in the U.S., the six New England states are still grappling with a surge of cases due to the delta variant. In some areas, hospitalizations are approaching the pandemic peak and ICUs are filling up.
https://twitter.com/ap/status/1444663597356011526?s=21
I’m vaccinated. It is clear the vaccines are not preventing transmission of the delta.