October 23, 2020 - A Second Wave
A Second Wave
October 23, 2020
Every Friday, ADPH updates its dashboard by adding cases that previously were not reported by private sector laboratories. Today, there was a massive data dump of 2,565 positive antigen tests from a single lab in Mobile County performed between June and October 13. Excluding those 2,565 probable cases, there were 1,287 new cases (incl. 314 probables). If the previously unreported probable cases are included, the daily total becomes 3,852. This data dump will skew the State’s positivity rates for the next week.
There were 9,043 tests reported today. Since the Mobile probables are derived from tests performed over a 4-month period, I believe it is inappropriate to include the Mobile probables when calculating our positivity rate, which furnishes a snapshot of the current rate of infection. Even after excluding the Mobile probables, the one-day positivity rate remains extremely high - 20.6% - while the 7-day statewide average is 19.4%.
It bears repeating that “probable” cases, which have been confirmed by rapid antigen tests, are no less “real cases” than PCR-confirmed cases. Therefore, although the Mobile “probables” should be excluded for purposes of calculating the current rates of infection, they are nevertheless real cases and should be added to the State’s cumulative totals. As of today, 180,916 Alabamians have officially contracted COVID-19 since the start of this pandemic - approximately 3.7% of our entire population.
Alabama’s hospitalizations have continued to rise. There are now 888 COVID-19 patients in 105 hospitals statewide, an increase of 24 over yesterday. The Huntsville Hospital System has 141 patients, including 42 at Huntsville Hospital itself. Both numbers are the highest since late August. DCH Health System in Tuscaloosa reported 61 patients, an increase of 19 in just the last 5 days. It’s safe to say that all of the State’s major hospitals have sufficient capacity to handle more than their current patient loads, but the upward trend is troubling.
The University of Alabama System also reported a significant increase in positive cases for the week ending Thursday, October 23. The number of students testing positive on the main campus in Tuscaloosa doubled from 34 to 68, while the UAH students who tested positive rose from 3 to 11 in one week. UAB bucked this trend as its student cases remained level at 63.
There seems little doubt that Alabama has entered the early stages of a second wave, following the lead of states located in the Upper Midwest and Great Plains. Thursday saw the second highest number of cases in the U.S. since the pandemic began (over 75,000) and we are on track to top total today. Meanwhile, COVID-19 hospitalizations increased in 38 states over the last week. Our neighbors are struggling more than we are - Tennessee reported 3,606 cases today; Georgia - 2,224; while Florida reported 5,557 yesterday. It should come as no surprise to see Alabama’s daily case totals begin to approach 2,000 again, a level we have not experienced since July. The 14-day totals:
10/10- 1061
10/11 - 816
10/12 - 734
10/13 - 1117
10/14 - 784
10/15 - 1185
10/16 - 1212
10/17 -1288
10/18 - 964
10/19 - 859
10/20 -1043
10/21 -1146
10/22 -1390
10/23 -1287
Aside from Mobile County and neighboring Baldwin County (140 cases, incl 112 probables), the only counties with more than 100 daily cases are Jefferson (127 cases, incl 11 probables) and Montgomery (103 cases, incl 32 probables). Lee County (9.59%) is now alone as the only county with a 14-day rolling positivity rate below 10%, while fully 31 counties have rates above 20% and 8 counties, astonishingly, exceed 30%.