October 22, 2020 - 2.5 Million Years of Human Life
2.5 Million Years of Human Life
October 22, 2020
Before today, Alabama had recorded as many as 1,390 new cases in a single day only 4 times since September 5. Today is the 5th. With 1,390 cases (incl. 343 probables), our 7-day rolling average now stands at 1,129, which is the highest such 7-day average since the Labor Day weekend.
This spike in cases is certainly not the result of increased testing. There were just 7,206 tests reported today, which is only slightly above the 7-day average of 6,665 tests. Our one-day positivity rate is 19.3% and our 7-day rolling average is 16.37%. In the past week in Alabama, daily cases rose 10% over the prior week.
For nearly 2 months, our statewide hospitalizations have remained in a very tight range. With 864 patients in 107 reporting hospitals, we are now sitting in the high end of that tight range. The last time there were as many as 900 statewide patients was September 3. Finally, 15 more Alabamians reportedly died of COVID-19, for a total of 2,843 who have died since the pandemic began.
It’s time to re-examine how the U.S. compares to the rest of the world in per capita cases, deaths and tests. Among countries having a population of at least 4 million people (the U.S. population is approximately 331 million), our country is (i) 5th in per capita cases (2,602 per 100K); (ii) 8th in per capita deaths (68.7 per 100K); and (iii) 7th in per capita tests performed (39,016 per 100K).
To bring it closer to home, if Alabama were a country, our State would rank (i) 1st in the world in per capita cases (3,611 per 100K) (both Dakotas, LA & MS would actually rank higher); (ii) 15th in per capita deaths (58 per 100K); and (iii) 16th in per capita tests.
According to an analysis by the Washington Post, with the U.S. case count and hospitalization rates approaching a third peak, none of the country’s biggest hotspots are currently in a large city. Almost all the counties with the largest outbreaks have populations under 50,000, and most have populations under 10,000. Nearly all are in the Midwest or the Mountain West. This is further confirmation of the trends I have observed in Alabama.
Finally, a Harvard research study recently concluded that more than 2.5 million years of human lives have been extinguished by this pandemic, based on the expected life span of the 220,000 persons who have died so far in the U.S. (analysis of “excess deaths” suggests this is a conservative number). That is an astonishing loss when you consider how those years might otherwise have been filled with memories of family, friends, productivity and joy. The totals:
10/9 - 1490
10/10- 1061
10/11 - 816
10/12 - 734
10/13 - 1117
10/14 - 784
10/15 - 1185
10/16 - 1212
10/17 -1288
10/18 - 964
10/19 - 859
10/20 -1043
10/21 -1146
10/22 -1390
With 141 cases, Jefferson is the only county with more than 100 daily cases. Of the State’s 67 counties,
28 now have positivity rates exceeding 20%, while only 2 counties have rates under 10%, including Lee and Wilcox. Here are the rates for the State’s most populous counties in ascending order: Lee (9%); Madison (10.1%); Mobile (10.5%); Baldwin (10.8%); Jefferson (12.6%); Shelby (14.8%); Tuscaloosa (16%); Calhoun (18.7%); Montgomery (19.9%); Morgan (22%).