October 20, 2020 - Elections Have Consequences
Elections Have Consequences
October 20, 2020
In Alabama, the beat goes on. There were 1,043 new cases (incl. 299 probables) - almost exactly equal to our daily average of 1,048 for the last 7 days. There were also 5,478 tests - 13.5% below the daily average of 6,339 over the same period. That results in a 19% one-day positivity rate and the 7-day rolling average has risen to 16.02%, which is 9th highest in the nation.
Hospitalizations remain stable at 846, a decline of 13 patients from yesterday (106 reporting hospitals). Sixteen of our fellow citizens reportedly died and our overall total stands at 2,805.
Politics and COVID are related in a way that seems obvious if you study the infection data in Alabama. Unlike other states, Alabama has experienced only one recent 50-50 statewide election - the Doug Jones vs Roy Moore contest of 2017. In that race, Sen. Jones’ coalition of largely suburban white voters and both urban and rural black voters was barely enough to offset Roy Moore’s support among rural and non-college educated white voters. Jones won 25 counties to Moore’s 41 mostly rural counties. One county - Monroe - was a virtual tie (49.9% to 49.5%).
There are 9 counties that now have weekly positivity rates in excess of 27% - Cleburne, DeKalb, Clay, Franklin, Lamar, Winston, Covington, Lawrence and Randolph. The percentage of white residents in those counties is higher than the State average, ranging from a low of 76.4% (Randolph) to a high of 97% (Winston) - and all 9 counties voted for Moore by wide margins.
In contrast, there are 13 counties with positivity rates below 13% - Sumter, Mobile, Lee, Baldwin, Chambers, Marion, Madison, Monroe, Dallas, Greene, Jefferson, Wilcox and Bullock. Sen. Jones carried 10 of those 13 counties, including Mobile, Jefferson (Birmingham), Madison (Huntsville) and Lee, home of Auburn University, while Monroe was a tie. Of the 13 counties with the current lowest rates of infection, Roy Moore carried only Baldwin and Marion counties.
Is this just a coincidence? Or is this an indication of political cause and effect? If it’s the latter, then the maxim that “Elections have consequences” has rarely proven to be so tragic. The totals:
10/7 - 941
10/8 - 557
10/9 - 1490
10/10- 1061
10/11 - 816
10/12 - 734
10/13 - 1117
10/14 - 784
10/15 - 1185
10/16 - 1212
10/17 -1288
10/18 - 964
10/19 - 859
10/20 -1043
Sumter (9.5%) Mobile (9.76%) and Lee (9.85%) counties are the only counties with positivity rates lower than 10%, while Cleburne (36.29%), DeKalb (32.29%), Clay (31.47%) and Franklin (31.2%) counties are the only ones with rates higher than 30%.