October 19, 2021
Since my last letter on October 15, Alabama has continued to see declining cases. ADPH reported 961 new cases this morning, down from 1,353 cases a week ago. Our 7-day average is now 834 new cases per day, a decline of 10.3% from last week. The rate of decline in cases has slowed a little, but there is little evidence we have reached a plateau. Meanwhile, our hospitalization rate has dropped 16% compared to last week, but the death rate has increased 19% for the same period. Eighty-four more Alabamians were added to our death rolls today, raising the total to 15,263 confirmed deaths overall.
In the last week, an average of 11.4K doses per day were administered, a 7% drop from the week before. So far, only 44% of our entire population is fully vaccinated, but 51% of the eligible population (age 12 and older) has been fully vaccinated. By age, 27.7% of those between age 12 and 17 are vaccinated; 47.3% of those between 18 and 64; and 80.2% of seniors age 65 and up. Among the 10 most populous counties in the State, fully vaccinated percentages are as follows: Madison (53%): Jefferson (50%); Montgomery (45%); Baldwin (44%); Mobile (43%); Calhoun (41%); Tuscaloosa (38%); Morgan (38%); Lee (34%); and Shelby (32%). Two Black Belt counties, Choctaw (57%) and Hale (54%), are the most vaccinated, while two of the whitest counties, Winston (20%) and Blount (28%), are the least.
Is the worst of the pandemic finally behind us? So much depends on the virus itself. It is not static. It mutates and experts who closely monitor the virus have said it still appears to have plenty of room to evolve. Many scientists suspect that the next “variant of concern,” if and when one emerges, will descend from the Delta variant, and vaccination is the key to preventing future mutations.
So, the trend in Alabama is good right now. Of course, that was also true of the U.K…. until recently. On Monday, Britain reported its highest number of new COVID cases since lockdown restrictions were put in place there last summer. The country lifted all Covid restrictions on July 19, when pubs and restaurants were allowed to operate at full capacity and nightclubs reopened their doors. With more than two-thirds of its population vaccinated, Britain has managed to avoid high hospitalization and death rates despite the rise in cases.
Meanwhile, there are reports out of Washington that the FDA is planning to approve a "mix and match" approach for Covid booster shots when it meets later this week, allowing Americans to receive a different vaccine than their initial dose. The decision is supported by the findings of a federally funded “mix and match” study that recipients of J&J’s single-dose shot who received a Moderna booster saw their antibody levels rise 76-fold in just 15 days.
Finally, Governor Ivey ordered flags to be lowered to half-staff in honor of Gen. Colin Powell, who died of complications from Covid-19. General Powell was 84 years old and battling multiple myeloma and Parkinson’s at the time of his death. Having been fully vaccinated last spring, he was scheduled for a booster shot when he contracted the disease. General Powell and his wife, Alma, (an Alabama native) were married at First Congregational Church in the Smithfield neighborhood of Birmingham almost 60 years ago. Powell, a four-star general who rose to the highest ranks of the U.S military, served our country as Secretary of State, and advised four Presidents from both political parties, will be laid to rest in Arlington National Cemetery. The totals:
10/6 - 1,272
10/7 - 1,262
10/8 - 1,049
10/9 - 919
10/10 - 653
10/11 - 467
10/12 -1,353
10/13 -1,016
10/14 -1,050
10/15 -1,143
10/16 - 786
10/17 - 544
10/18 - 338
10/19 - 961