October 18, 2020 - Guidance on School Reopenings
Guidance on School Reopenings
October 18, 2020
It’s Sunday again, the day in the week when reporting is typically less reliable. So, let’s compare apples-to-apples. ADPH reported 964 cases (incl. 133 probables) today, which is significantly more than the number of cases on each of the last 4 Sundays: Oct. 11 - 816; Oct. 4 -789; Sept. 27 - 730; and Oct. 20 - 798.
As for tests, ADPH reported 5,101 today, which is significantly fewer than the number of tests on each of the last 4 Sundays: Oct. 11 - 5,687; Oct. 4 - 6,473; Sept. 27 - 5,347; Sept. 20 - 5,595.
More cases and fewer tests are not a prescription for success. It is no wonder that the one-day positivity rate was 18.9%, the highest since September 11. And, the 7-day average positivity rate topped 16% for the first time since September 15.
I have generally avoided writing about school reopenings for two reasons. First, I believe the risk-benefit analysis involved in deciding when to begin in-person instruction is enormously complex and uniquely personal to each family. As someone who no longer has school-age children, it would be presumptuous of me to express an opinion on the subject. Second, the issue of in-person vs distance learning is the third rail of public discourse and I prefer not to be burned.
On October 5, Dr. Mark Wilson, Jefferson County Health Officer, offered updated guidance on school reopenings to county school superintendents and heads of school. I found his advice to be measured and thoughtful. https://www.jcdh.org/SitePages/Misc/PdfViewer?AdminUploadId=944. Without expressing an opinion, I will only offer a few supplemental statistics that might be helpful.
On the Hoover schools dashboard, it is noted that the “recommended” threshold for in-person instruction is 140 positive cases per 100K population over the prior 14 days. This is higher than the recommendation of 75 positive cases per 100K population, issued by the Washington State Health Dept on Oct. 16. During the 14-day period ending Oct. 15, there were 33 Hoover students and staff who tested positive, which equates to 215 positive cases per 100K population. That may sound high, but it is actually lower than the per capita positives for the same period in the general populations of Jefferson Co. (258 per 100K), Shelby Co. (278 per 100K) and the State of Alabama (287 per 100K).
By way of comparison, here are the infection rates during similar (but not identical) 2-week periods for the public school systems in Lee County, Pell City and the City of Tuscaloosa, with the caveat that the underlying data supporting my calculations were compiled and presented differently, which could lead to slightly different results: (1) Lee County - 281 positives per 100K; (2) City of Tuscaloosa - 319 positives per 100K; (3) Pell City - 465 positives per 100K.
Now, for the 14-day statewide case totals:
10/5 - 544
10/6 - 764
10/7 - 941
10/8 - 557
10/9 - 1490
10/10- 1061
10/11 - 816
10/12 - 734
10/13 - 1117
10/14 - 784
10/15 - 1185
10/16 - 1212
10/17 -1288
10/18 - 964
Jefferson (106) and Tuscaloosa (104) are the only counties with more than 100 cases today. There are now 4 counties with 14 -day positivity rates: Cleburne (35.55%); DeKalb (32.8%); Franklin (30.49%); and Lamar (30.05%).