October 13, 2020 - Mixed Signals
Mixed Signals
October 13, 2020
Today’s data provide mixed signals as to whether Alabama is on the brink of a second wave. New daily cases increased to 1,117 (incl. 257 probables), well above the 7-day rolling average. There were just 6,597 tests, well below the 7-day rolling average (note: only 6 states have done fewer tests per capita than Alabama). These numbers equate to a 17% one-day positivity rate and a 13.56% weekly positivity rate. Both rates are on the upswing. If these data were accompanied by another uptick in hospitalizations, I would feel more confident saying that the second wave has arrived.
Alas, statewide patients actually declined today. There are now 823 statewide COVID-19 patients in 105 reporting hospitals, 33 patients fewer than yesterday despite the same number of reporting hospitals. Alabama is currently 9th in the nation in current per capita COVID hospitalizations.
In the west and midwest, there is no ambiguity. The second wave is here. Over the past week, the U.S. posted an average of 50,492 new cases per day, an increase of 19 percent from the average two weeks earlier. Indiana, Illinois, West Virginia, Minnesota, North Dakota and South Dakota on Tuesday set new 7-day average highs of cases of the novel coronavirus. Seventeen additional states have set new average highs at least once since Saturday, according to data tracked by the Washington Post.
On the vaccine front, Johnson & Johnson paused its 60,000-person coronavirus vaccine trial Monday after a participant fell ill with undisclosed symptoms. It’s the second large U.S. vaccine trial to halt inoculations. This is a fairly common occurrence in large trials of this kind. J&J remains confident that its vaccine will be ready for approval in early Q1 of 2021. The totals:
9/30 - 1,147
10/1 - 1,043
10/2 - 954
10/3 - 1682
10/4 - 789
10/5 - 544
10/6 - 764
10/7 - 941
10/8 - 557
10/9 - 1490
10/10- 1061
10/11 - 816
10/12 - 734
10/13 - 1117
Here are today’s daily case counts for the 10 most populous counties: Jefferson - 136 (incl 16 probables); Mobile - 40 (incl 5 probables); Madison - 42 (all confirmed); Montgomery - 53 (incl 4 probables); Baldwin - 28 (incl 7 probables); Shelby - 52(incl 10 probables); Tuscaloosa -72 (incl 10 probables); Lee - 10 (incl 2 probables); Morgan - 33 (all confirmed); Calhoun - 36 (incl 7 probables).