October 11, 2020 - Troubling Spike in the Midwest
Troubling Spike in the Midwest
October 11, 2020
Today is Sunday, a day that typically registers lower daily cases. Consider this little-known fact: since Sept. 10, the U.S. has recorded fewer than 35,000 new daily cases only 4 times and every one of those days was a Sunday.
Alabama’s Sunday disparity is less pronounced but it still exists - on all but one of 7 consecutive Sundays since the middle of August (the exception being 9/13), Alabama has recorded significantly fewer daily cases than the State’s 7-day rolling average at the time. Today, there were 816 reported cases (incl. 127 probables), which are fewer than the 7-day rolling average of 967 per day. There were also 5,687 tests (compared to the 6,784 rolling daily average). The average positivity rate over the last week is 12.72%, which places us 10th in the nation.
I stated yesterday that Alabama’s data the last 2 days are perhaps indicative of the start of a second wave. The data today neither confirm nor rebut that theory. We just have to wait and see how the data shape up next week. It does seem clear, however, that large parts of the Midwest (e.g., IL; IN; WI; MI; MO; OK; NE) are experiencing major spikes, while pockets of the South, like North Carolina and Tennessee, also have reason to be concerned.
Statewide hospitalizations climbed to 812 today with just 96 reporting hospitals. That’s roughly the same number of inpatients held by 107 reporting hospitals on Friday, just 2 days ago. We now have about 16 COVID-19 hospital patients per 100K population, which is tied for 10th highest in the U.S. According to the Washington Post, hospitalizations have risen 10.9% nationwide since last week. If hospitalizations continue to rise in the coming week, it should tell us whether or not the second wave has arrived in our State. Here are the totals:
9/28 - 662
9/29 - 571
9/30 - 1,147
10/1 - 1,043
10/2 - 954
10/3 - 1,682
10/4 - 789
10/5 - 544
10/6 - 764
10/7 - 941
10/8 - 557
10/9 - 1,490
10/10- 1061
10/11 - 816
There are no longer any counties in the State with 14-day positivity rates under 8%, while there are 16 counties with rates over 20%. As of today, Jefferson (9.72%) and Mobile (9.58%) are the only urban counties with positivity rates under 10%. Tuscaloosa County reported 50 new probable cases today, likely students who tested positive with a rapid antigen test.