October 10, 2020 - Mounting Evidence of a Second Wave
Mounting Evidence of a Second Wave
October 10, 2020
Alabama followed yesterday’s spike in cases (rising from 547 to 1,490) with another high number today - 1,061 (incl 60 probables), about 100 more cases than our current 7-day rolling average (967 per day). There were 7,868 tests reported, also about 100 more tests than our 7-day rolling average (6,896 per day). Our weekly positivity rate stands at 12.48%, which remains the highest positivity rate of any Southern state (Florida is second highest at 10.3%). The last time our 7-day positivity rate fell below 12% was August 25, almost 7 weeks ago.
There were also 12 more deaths. Our 7-day average death rate now exceeds 13 per day, which is the highest since September 13.
It is striking that the high daily cases yesterday and today include such a low percentage of “probable” cases. That tells me more than 1,000 daily cases in Alabama are now being confirmed by lab-administered PCR tests rather than rapid antigen tests. The rapid test is utilized predominantly in school and college environments, while the PCR test is more prevalent in the community at large. The higher ratio of confirming PCR tests suggests that infections among students and young people are now spreading to the general population. If so, we could be seeing early signs of a second wave.
This theory is supported by the recent trend in hospitalizations. Yesterday, statewide hospitalizations topped 800 for only the second time since 9/14 (rising from 754 to 816, with 107 reporting hospitals). Today, there were 792 patients but 7 fewer reporting hospitals. An “apples to apples” comparison would suggest that COVID hospitalizations actually increased. It is important to remember that hospitalizations declined during August-September largely because the average age of COVID patients declined. If hospitalizations have begun to rise again, it’s a sign that the demographic trend has reversed.
A second wave could be starting to grip the rest of the nation as well. For the first time in nearly 2 months (8/14), total daily cases in the U.S. exceeded 60,000 yesterday. According to Johns Hopkins, new daily cases increased 9.8% this week, while COVID-related hospitalizations rose 13.1% and new daily reported deaths increased 2.5%.The number of reported tests rose only 1.1%. The totals:
9/27 - 730
9/28 - 662
9/29 - 571
9/30 - 1,147
10/1 - 1,043
10/2 - 954
10/3 - 1,682
10/4 - 789
10/5 - 544
10/6 - 764
10/7 - 941
10/8 - 557
10/9 - 1,490
10/10- 1061
The 5 best counties, measured by 14-day positivity rates, are as follows; (1) Sumter (6.85%); (2) Lauderdale (9.07%); (3) Tallapoosa (9.26%); (4) Jefferson (9.77%); and (5) Dallas (9.87%). The 5 counties with the worst rates are (1) Lamar (26.29%); (2) Covington (26.16%); (3) DeKalb (25.76%); (4) Cleburne (25.33%); and (5) Randolph (25.28%).