November 9, 2021
It’s been a full week since my last letter to you on November 2. According to ADPH, 4,243 cases were reported in Alabama this week, but 978 of those cases were “reprocessed” - meaning, I suppose, that they are old cases which are just now being reported. If the old cases are not taken into account, then there was a net of 3,265 cases this week, averaging 466 new cases per day.
On a per capita basis, Alabama has averaged just 12 daily cases per 100K population over the last 14 days, which is better than all but 8 other states. The daily rate ranges from a low of 2 cases per 100K in Montgomery County, and 3 cases per 100K in Jefferson County, to a high of 110 cases per 100K in Fayette County. The vast majority of the counties with the highest infection rates are located in north Alabama.
Meanwhile, the State currently has 328 confirmed patients in 101 reporting hospitals (3.25 patients per hospital), which is the lowest rate since mid-July. Alabama’s death rate, however, continues to be unusually high - 250 deaths in the past week (37 deaths per day) - which is tied for the 5th highest death rate in the nation over the past week.
So, our daily case count and hospitalization rate are relatively low but our death rate remains persistently high. Indeed, Alabama’s death rate since the start of the pandemic is 2nd highest in the nation, behind only Mississippi. A report released today by the Texas state health department, which examined data from Jan. 15 to Oct. 1, sheds new light on Covid deaths. The report found that unvaccinated people were much more likely to die of the virus than those who were vaccinated. Of the nearly 29,000 Covid-related fatalities in Texas during that period, more than 85% were unvaccinated individuals, nearly 7% were partially vaccinated, and nearly 8% were fully vaccinated.
Alabama now has a 45% vaccination rate for the entire population and the breakdown by age is striking: (i) 89% of persons aged 65 and older are fully vaccinated; (ii) 61% of persons aged 18-64; and (iii) 38% of children aged 12-17. Younger children were ineligible before last week.
It is tempting to conclude that Alabama’s Covid problems are behind us because our positivity rate and hospitalization rate are quite good right now. But then, I see Germany and much of eastern Europe and realize how fragile our progress might be. According to public data released Monday, Germany's infection rate has risen to its highest level since the start of the pandemic - 201 cases per 100K population, eclipsing its previous record of 197 cases per 100K last December.
This pandemic has fed on hubris for nearly two years. Therefore, as the holiday season approaches, we must not forget to be sensible. Today, Pfizer applied for approval of booster shots for every adult (not just immunocompromised adults and those over 65). This time around, such approval is generally expected to be granted. So, if you were vaccinated last spring but have not yet received a booster shot, please do so as soon as possible. This is no time for hubris. The totals:
10/27 - 7,393
10/28 - 2,141
10/29 - 376
10/30 - 488
10/31 - 394
11/1 - 217
11/2 - 745
11/3 - 484
11/4 - 1,089
11/5 - 575
11/6 - 585
11/7 - 292
11/8 - 223
11/9 - 995