November 9, 2020 - Vaccines on the Brink
Vaccines on the Brink
November 9, 2020
There is a lot of news about the pandemic today. Let’s start with our State’s most pertinent data.
When ADPH releases its case count on a Monday, it represents the sum of the data received from testing labs the prior Sunday, which is a light reporting day. ADPH reported 1,190 cases (incl 190 probables), which is below the 7-day average of 1,424, but I wouldn’t get too excited. It’s probably an anomaly.
The same is true for tests. ADPH reported only 4,138 tests, which is low, even for Alabama (7-day average 7,201). Over the last 7 days, Alabama ranks 49th in per capita tests, just barely higher than Oregon. Our one-day positivity rate is 28.3% and our rolling average for the last 7 days is 18.98%, which is the 8th highest rate in the nation.
As expected, our statewide hospitalizations are suddenly spiking … and that is very alarming. With 108 hospitals reporting, there are 1,174 confirmed patients, an increase of 114 over yesterday. This is our highest level of COVID patients since August 19 and I expect to see the number continue to climb as the cold weather approaches.
On the bright side, drugmaker Pfizer announced today that its vaccine was more than 90 percent effective in its Phase III trial. If these results are confirmed, that level of protection will put the vaccine on par with highly effective childhood vaccines for diseases such as measles. No serious safety concerns were observed. Therefore, Pfizer plans to seek emergency use authorization from the FDA later this month after it has collected two months of safety data.
There are significant questions that remain to be answered, including (i) how long will the vaccine protect against infection; (ii) does the vaccine’s efficacy vary among age groups; (iii) when will the vaccine be readily available to the public; (iv) even if there are no serious long-term side effects, will the acknowledged side effects deter people from taking it; and (v) how will the distribution be handled, considering the need to keep it frozen at an extremely low temperature.
There is no doubt Pfizer’s announcement is cause for optimism. There could be more hopeful signs in coming weeks - after all, 3 more vaccines have ongoing Phase III trials in the U.S. Yet, it is clear that no vaccine will be available in time to make a difference this winter. In the meantime, as cases surge in more than half of the country, there is no substitute for responsible human behavior like wearing facial coverings, observing social distances and washing your hands. If you don’t believe me, just ask the latest batch of 7 White House officials and Cabinet members who tested positive, including Mark Meadows and HHS Secretary Ben Carson. The totals:
10/27- 1115
10/28 -1269
10/29 -1443
10/30 -1347
10/31 -1789
11/1 - 1700
11/2 - 907
11/3 - 1037
11/4 - 1848
11/5 - 1381
11/6 - 1556
11/7 - 1768
11/8 - 1205
11/9 - 1190
Jefferson County reported 176 cases and Madison County reported 101 cases. Only 7 counties have 14-day positivity rates below 15% while 47 counties have rates above 20%.