November 8, 2020 - Alabama : A Testing Desert
Alabama: A Testing Desert
November 8, 2020
On this Sunday, a typically light reporting day, 1,205 cases (incl 104 probables) and 6,323 tests were reported in Alabama, producing a one-day positivity rate of 19.06%. Mercifully, there were just 2 reported deaths.
Let’s compare the current data in Alabama to the nation as a whole. The pandemic is rapidly worsening throughout the U.S. right now. During the past week, daily cases rose 28% from the prior week, daily deaths rose 21%, COVID-related hospitalizations rose 12.9% and reported tests rose 6.6% from the previous week. At least 16 states reported single-day case records on Friday, and 9 more did so on Saturday. Our country has endured 100,000+ cases for 5 days in a row, while 1,000+ Americans have died for 5 consecutive days for the first time since early August.
In contrast, during the past week in Alabama, daily cases rose only 6% from the prior week, daily deaths rose just 6.7%, COVID-related hospitalizations rose 5.7%, while reported tests actually fell 0.5%. It might appear that Alabama is doing a bit better than the nation as a whole.
But is it, really? Despite Alabama’s slower rate of growth in cases, hospitalizations and deaths, our positivity rate for the week (18-20%) is much higher than the nation’s rate (7-8%). How can we be doing better if our infection rate is so much worse?
The positivity rate tells you what percentage of tests prove positive. If we don’t test enough, we won’t necessarily have fewer cases, only fewer known cases. In Alabama, we consistently rank very high in per capita cases (currently 9th) while ranking low in per capita tests (currently 44th). As a result, our positivity rate has been extremely high throughout this pandemic. That means we are testing only the sickest persons instead of casting a net that is wide enough to trace community spread. Lately, the level of testing has been worse than ever. Indeed, Alabama has ranked next to last in the nation in per capita tests over the last 7 days.
Today’s data on hospitalizations are an ominous warning of a hard winter - 1,060 patients (96 reporting hospitals). That is an increase of 75 patients from the same number of hospitals yesterday. Normally, there are fewer in-patients on Sundays, but the following Sunday data show the trend is up - on 10/4 (753 patients); on 10/18 (835); on 10/25 (935); on 11/1 (973); today (1,060). On weekdays, reports from 108-110 hospitals are customary, so you can expect to see more than 1,100 COVID patients by early next week. The 14-day totals:
10/26 - 967
10/27- 1115
10/28 -1269
10/29 -1443
10/30 -1347
10/31 -1789
11/1 - 1700
11/2 - 907
11/3 - 1037
11/4 - 1848
11/5 - 1381
11/6 - 1556
11/7 - 1768
11/8 - 1205
Jefferson County led with 200 cases today. No other county posted as many as 100 cases.