November 7, 2023
Greetings. When I last wrote to you in early October, the incidence of Covid-related hospital admissions in Alabama was on the wane. After peaking during the week of September 9, the number of new statewide hospitalizations declined for 5 consecutive weeks, bottoming at 190 admissions during the week of October 14. Since then, Alabama has seen 2 consecutive weekly increases. That means it is time to write again.
I will begin with some context. Since the end of the national public health emergency on May 11, 2023, the Centers for Disease Control & Prevention has reverted from daily to weekly updates of Covid data, which it releases every Monday evening. The CDC’s latest report covers the week of October 28, which is now two weeks old. Unfortunately, that is the best information we have, even on the national level.
For the week in Alabama, there were 262 new Covid-19 hospital admissions, a 19% increase over the prior week of October 21 and a 38% rise from the week of October 14. Compared to the same week last year, our new hospitalizations are about the same. In fact, as of October 29, 2022, there were 256 new admissions for the week, which is 6 admissions fewer than the 262 admissions recorded this week. Last year, Alabama’s hospitalizations remained relatively flat at around 230-260 per week throughout October and November until after Thanksgiving, when they suddenly spiked as winter weather arrived and families gathered for the holidays.
What is most concerning about our recent data is the fact that we experienced these two consecutive weekly increases so early, which begs the question if the surge will continue into November. By contrast, hospitalizations actually declined nationally between October 14 and October 28. Moreover, in nearly all of our neighboring Southeastern states, hospitalizations dropped during the same two-week period. Only Mississippi, like Alabama, experienced an increase in each of those two weeks. Outside the Southeast, there are only 4 states that saw a percentage increase larger than in Alabama - Texas, New Mexico, Kansas and Nebraska.
Drilling down to the county level, Alabama’s rise in hospital admissions seems largely attributable to an area of the State that borders Tennessee. Madison County (home to Huntsville) and its neighbors, Jackson and Limestone counties, reported 17.2 new admissions per 100K population, compared with the State’s overall rate of 5.34 new admissions per 100K population. Perhaps this is a reporting anomaly that will be resolved in future reports. Of course, I will continue to monitor those reports.
Bottom line: we are rapidly approaching the winter, when Covid tends to surge. It was true in 2020 and in 2021 and in 2022. There is no reason to expect that 2023 will be any different. Especially if you are immunocompromised or over 60 years old, keeping current on your vaccinations may avoid an unfortunate visit to the hospital during the holidays.
Thank You