November 6, 2020 - The Third Wave
The Third Wave
November 6, 2020
The United States is on the crest of a wave right now, but it’s not a blue wave or a red wave. It is a third wave, a COVID wave, and it is more threatening than the two COVID waves that preceded it. According to worldometers.info, over 118,000 new cases were reported nationwide yesterday, an unfathomable number that is 50% higher than the worst day last summer. No country in the world had seen as many as 100,000 cases in a single day until the U.S. exceeded that level last Friday. Today marks the 3rd day this week our country has done so. Our nation is on track to end the day by hitting 10 million cases overall, on the same day the world’s total tops 50 million.
For those who like to dismiss the severity of this virus, pointing to a death rate that is lower than last spring, I have news for you. The country is on track to record more than 1,100 deaths for the 4th consecutive day - the first time that has happened since the end of August. At least 18 states have recorded record numbers of COVID patients, so rising deaths have inevitably followed. That is happening in the Midwest and Mountain West right now.
Moreover, the severity of this disease should not be measured by death alone. According to a recent study published in JAMA, 10% of COVID-19 patients were found to be “long-haulers”. These patients have in theory recovered from the worst impacts of COVID-19 and have tested negative. However, they still have lasting symptoms, which range from debilitating fatigue to severe body aches, shortness of breath, chronic cough, fever/chills, difficulty sleeping and brain fog. So far, approximately 1 million Americans are long-haulers.
In Alabama, we saw 1,556 cases reported today (incl 376 probables), which is above our 7-day average of 1,460 cases per day. There were also 8,341 tests, so our one-day positivity rate was 18.65% and the average positivity rate for the last 7 days is 18.83%. We also learned of the deaths of 23 more Alabamians.
After dipping to 994 hospitalizations yesterday (in 104 hospitals), the number of statewide patients rose to 1,022 today, according to the same number of reporting hospitals. That level is well below the 1,600 confirmed patients the State had in July but the trend is not favorable. The 14-day case totals:
10/24 -1178 - 1769
10/25 -1079
10/26 - 967
10/27- 1115
10/28 -1269
10/29 -1443
10/30 -1347
10/31 -1789
11/1 - 1700
11/2 - 907
11/3 - 1037
11/4 - 1848
11/5 - 1381
11/6 - 1556
Jefferson County had a bad day, with 211 new daily cases, followed by Cullman County with 88 cases; Mobile County with 76 cases, Madison County with 72 cases and Shelby County with 73 cases.
Only 7 counties now have 14-day positivity rates below 15%, while 46 have rates above 20%; and 10 have rates over 30%.