November 30, 2020 - Blowing Through the Ceiling

Blowing Through the Ceiling

November 30, 2020

Yesterday, I remarked that Alabama’s current statewide hospitalizations were approaching the peak level reached in late July, when they crested at 1,613 before starting a rapid descent. Today, we blew through that ceiling and headed higher, as ADPH recorded 1,717 COVID current in-patients in 104 reporting hospitals. This virus just treated us to another glimpse at the power of exponential growth.

Consider the following: on September 25, Alabama’s confirmed hospitalizations stood at 703, which is 1,000+  fewer hospital patients than we have today. It took 52 days for the number of patients to rise from 700 to 1,200, reaching that milestone on November 16. It took just 14 days for the number of patients to rise from 1,200 to 1,700 today. 

Alabama is not unique. The United States recorded 30,000 COVID patients on September 29 and 47,000 by the end of October. In November alone, the nation’s hospitalizations nearly doubled from 47,000 to 93,000. 

ADPH also reported 2,295 new cases today (incl. 215 probables) and only 4,634 tests. Those numbers produced a whopping single-day positivity rate of 49.5% and a positivity rate of 28.6% over the last 7 days. No other Southern state has a positivity rate above 18%.

That’s right - Alabama has reached another inflection point … and the expected rise in cases that will surely follow Thanksgiving week will only make it worse. That should be a frightening prospect for the medical professionals at UAB Hospital, which eclipsed its prior record with 125 COVID patients today. It’s also bad news for the exhausted front line workers at the Huntsville Hospital System, which recorded 302 COVID patients today, shattering its July peak of 228 patients, and more than twice its COVID patients at the start of November.

Moderna filed an emergency use application for its vaccine today and announced that it expects to launch its inoculations by December 21. In doing so, Moderna joined Pfizer, which expects to receive authorization to begin distributing its vaccine in mid-December.  At the speed the pandemic is now spreading, these vaccines cannot arrive soon enough. In the meantime, it is up to all of us to do our part to wear our masks and stay out of harm’s way. One more thing: whenever you encounter someone who works in a hospital, say a word of thanks.  The totals:

11/17 - 1616

11/18 - 2638

11/19 - 2424

11/20 - 2463

11/21 - 2335

11/22 - 1798

11/23 - 1574

11/24 - 2785

11/25-  2453

11/26 - 2639

11/27 -  917

11/28 - 2119

11/29 - 2236

11/30 - 2295

Jefferson County reported 346 new cases, followed by Madison County with 171, Shelby County with 151 cases and Morgan County with 110 cases. Colbert County (population 55,241) had 150 new cases. ADPH did not attribute the spike in Colbert County to extenuating circumstances.