November 26, 2021 - Omicron

Omicron

November 26, 2021

I had intended to release my next newsletter early next week, but the coronavirus made other plans.

A new heavily mutated variant of concern was reported from certain countries in southern Africa on Wednesday which made headlines today. The World Health Organization has named it Omicron. According to WHO’s technical lead on Covid-19, “This variant has a large number of mutations, and some of these mutations have some worrying characteristics.”

Here is an excellent in-depth (but understandable to a lay person) analysis of what we know right now: https://yourlocalepidemiologist.substack.com/p/new-concerning-variant-b11529?justPublished=true&fbclid=IwAR0PPL4epCEO9WPbPquXyQRTjEYv0kk_whm7fMiKzJjSZRhTJRp6Owwie1E In a nutshell, there is reason to believe the Omicron variant is potentially more transmissible than the Delta variant and potentially vaccine-resistant. Omicron also may have the potential to cause more severe disease. Experts have characterized Omicron as, far and away, the most concerning strain of the virus yet to be identified.

With all that being said, there are reasons to be optimistic and I choose to focus on those right now. First and foremost, this new variant was discovered early and has the attention of the most knowledgeable scientists in the world. As a result, experts are already hard at work to decode this new threat. The Financial Times has reported that BioNTech, the company that has partnered with Pfizer, is already testing its vaccine against Omicron and will know within two weeks the extent of its efficacy. If necessary, a revised vaccine can be tweaked and produced within 100 days to counter any vaccine-evasive properties of the new variant.

Francois Balloux, an epidemiologist and director of University College London’s Genetics Institute, told the BBC on Friday that the early discovery of the Omicron variant should render it easier to contain. Even if Omicron is found to be more transmissible than previous variants, it would not “bring us to square one”, he said, adding that “it should be seen more as an irritating setback rather than a rebirth of the pandemic”.

Omicron has not yet been found in the United States, although that eventuality is probably inevitable. Besides southern Africa, it has been identified so far in Hong Kong, Israel and Belgium. Alabama is doing relatively well at the moment - an average of 358 new cases daily since last Monday (9 cases per 100K population) and only 2.9 patients per reporting hospital. Of course, if Omicron proves to be as contagious as feared, our low vaccination rate and anti-masking culture will be put to the test as never before.

I want to conclude by quoting Katelyn Jetelina (Your Local Epidemiologist - see link above) because we have to focus on what we can control: “None of this variant stuff changes what you need to do on an individual-level right now. Unless, of course, if you weren’t doing anything at all. Get vaccinated. Get boosted. Ventilate spaces. Use masks. Test if you have symptoms. Isolate if positive. And encourage others to do the same.” The totals:

11/12 - 722

11/13 - 600

11/14 - 259

11/15 - 258

11/16 - 542

11/17 - 496

11/18 - 492

11/19 - 473

11/20 - 680

11/21 - 272

11/22 - 253

11/23 - 619

11/24 - 416

11/25 - Not reported

11/26 - 398