November 21, 2020 - North Alabama is a Mess
North Alabama is a Mess
November 21, 2020
For the 4th straight day, ADPH reported more than 2,000 cases - 2,335, to be exact (incl. 648 probables). This follows the same pattern as last week, when Alabama recorded 2,000+ daily cases from Wednesday through Saturday before breaking the string. With 9,974 reported tests, the single-day positivity rate is 23.4% and the 7-day moving average is 21%.
Fueling Alabama’s current outbreak is the surge of infection in the northern tier of the State. Of the 10 counties with the most per capita cases over the last 7 days, 9 of them (all but Coosa County) are located between Birmingham and the Tennessee line. They include (1) DeKalb County (77.5 per 100K population); (2) Etowah (77.4); (3) Morgan (76.8); (4) Fayette (75.4); (5) Marshall (74); (6) Cullman (68.6); (7) Lauderdale (66.6); (8) Calhoun (58.7); (9) Coosa (56.3); and (10) Lawrence (56). Although Jefferson County has averaged 337 cases per day over the last week, more than twice the number as any other county, the State’s largest county ranks 15th in per capita cases.
This week, our State suffered 211 more deaths, raising the total to 3,457 Alabamians who have died since the pandemic began. According to a CDC analysis, deaths were 18% higher than normal in the United States from March 15 to November 7. “Excess deaths” - i.e. the difference between observed deaths and expected deaths during a particular time period - examines deaths from all causes, not just confirmed cases of COVID-19. This analysis does not depend on the accuracy of cause-of-death reporting and includes, for example, deaths resulting from disruptions caused by the pandemic as well as the virus itself.
In Alabama, there were 6,500 excess deaths as of November 7, of which only 3,082 deaths were directly attributable to COVID-19. Based on the CDC analysis, it’s clear that COVID-19 is indirectly responsible for far more deaths than generally believed.
Finally, on a day when nationwide COVID hospital patients topped 82,000, the 12th consecutive record for hospitalizations, there were 96 Alabama hospitals reporting 1,300 patients. That represents a 25-patient decline compared to yesterday, when there were 9 more reporting hospitals. The totals:
11/8 - 1205
11/9 - 1190
11/10 - 1720
11/11 - 2070
11/12- 2000
11/13 - 2980
11/14 - 2226
11/15 - 1979
11/16 - 1410
11/17 - 1616
11/18 - 2638
11/19 - 2424
11/20 - 2463
11/21 - 2335
Jefferson County led the State again with 401 cases, followed by Madison County with 136 and Morgan County with 118. Fully one-quarter of Alabama’s counties now have 14-day positivity rates above 30%.