November 16, 2021
During the 7 days ending Tuesday, November 9, Alabama averaged 466 new cases per day after adjusting for a data dump earlier in the week. Today, one week later, our average is 463 new cases per day. In other words, our case counts are about the same, neither improving nor worsening. In the U.S. as a whole, new cases rose 14% in the past week. In 28 states, cases rose by at least 5%, while 9 states saw a decline of at least 5%.
Hospitalizations also rose in the United States this week, but only by 3%. In 19 states, hospitalizations rose by at least 5%, while 18 states saw a decline of at least 5%. Alabama’s rate of hospitalization declined 11% - 298 patients in 103 reporting hospitals (2.9 per hospital). The per capita rate is now 9 patients per 100K population, well below the national average of 14 patients per 100K.
After taking a moment to acknowledge Alabama’s recent good fortune, I will admit to feeling uneasy. Many cold weather states in the U.S.- states like Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin & Vermont - are clearly experiencing a new wave of cases. They have seen cases increase by 50% to 70% in the last 14 days. Europe finds itself again at the center of the pandemic, with cases especially spiking in areas that have low vaccination rates. About 65% of Austria's population is fully vaccinated - one of the lowest rates in Western Europe - and the 7-day infection rate in Austria is more than 128 cases per 100,000 people, third highest in Europe.
In response, Austria has announced a national lockdown of all unvaccinated individuals except children under the age of 12 and people who have recently recovered from the virus. In neighboring Germany, where just 67% of the citizens are vaccinated, the federal and state government leaders will meet later this week to discuss new restrictions on the unvaccinated. In Russia, where only 35% of the population is vaccinated, shops, restaurants and schools are being shuttered in a partial lockdown and workers were given 9 days paid leave to curb infections.
In the United States, of course, no one advocates a lockdown, either partial or otherwise. However, the Occupational Safety & Health Administration, the federal agency vested with legal authority to protect workers from “grave dangers” posed by new hazards, was hit with a blizzard of lawsuits after ordering large employers either to require their workers to get vaccinated or be subjected to regular testing. One such lawsuit has led to a ruling by the Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals temporarily suspending OSHA’s order pending further review.
Wherever cases suddenly rise, hospitalizations and deaths almost always follow. Areas with little testing probably will appear to have fewer cases regardless of how rampant the virus may be. And Alabama is one of just 6 states that averaged fewer than 1,000 tests per 100K population in the last 7 days. Our positivity rate is only 6% over that same period, which is not bad, but I can’t help but wonder if this truly reflects the extent of community spread in our state.
Yes, I am feeling a bit uneasy about Alabama’s current good fortune. With its 45.6% vaccination rate, Alabama would rank 77th in the world if it were a separate country, just above Azerbaijan and below Croatia. Even the United States, with its 59% vaccination rate, ranks just 55th in the world, tied with Latvia and Estonia. Despite a Monmouth poll released yesterday showing 61% support for vaccine mandates for health care workers, 59% support for school teachers, 57% to fly on a plane, and 51% to work in an office setting, it appears that OSHA’s workplace safety requirements may be tied up in court for a while.
So, as the winter holidays approach, my best advice is to focus on yourself and your family. If you can, get that booster shot now so you can enjoy the holidays with your loved ones, free from worry. Ignore all those who scream and yell on social media - after all, you can lead a horse to water but you can't make him drink. The totals:
11/3 - 484
11/4 - 1,089
11/5 - 575
11/6 - 585
11/7 - 292
11/8 - 223
11/9 - 995
11/10 - 178
11/11 - 686
11/12 - 722
11/13 - 600
11/14 - 259
11/15 - 258
11/16 - 542