November 15, 2020 - Adding Days to Your Number

Adding Days to Your Number

November 15, 2020

Another Sunday, typically a light-reporting day for hospitals and testing labs. It’s not surprising that Alabama broke its 4-day string of 2,000+ daily cases. It is surprising that we missed that milestone by such a tiny margin, as 1,979 cases (incl. 383 probables) were reported today. By way of comparison, ADPH’s report last Sunday reflected just 1,205 cases. The new 7-day moving average of 2,019 cases surpassed the State’s previous peak of 1,917, set on July 9.

There were just 6,251 tests, well below Alabama’s 7-day average of 9,464. Therefore, the single-day positivity rate is a whopping 31.7% and the 7-day rolling average is 23.5%, according to both Johns Hopkins and BamaTracker. There are just 5 states with higher positivity rates, all in the Midwest or Mountain West. Mississippi has the 2nd highest positivity rate among Southern states at 16.9%.

As we approach the holiday season, school districts around the State reported a 50% increase in week-to-week cases among students, teachers and staff. Jefferson County school districts self-reported the following weekly totals ending this Friday:  Jefferson County - 87; Hoover - 37; Vestavia Hills - 24; Trussville - 15; Homewood - 11; Mtn. Brook  - 7; and Birmingham - 7.

Based on the reports of 98 hospitals, there are currently 1,195 COVID patients statewide. That is 71 more patients than yesterday (also 98 hospitals), but slightly fewer than Thursday, when there were 105 reporting hospitals. On most weekdays, we can expect 105-110 hospitals to file reports. 

The United States logged more than 159,100 new cases on Saturday, the third consecutive day of 150,000+ cases. The 7-day moving average stands at 147,000 cases per day, double the rate just 18 days ago. Ten states set single-day case records on Saturday, while 29 more states reported adding more cases in the last week than in any prior 7-day stretch. For instance, Missouri announced 7,164 new cases on Saturday, its third single-day record in a row, along with 11 deaths and more than 2,400 hospitalizations, prompting the state’s hospital association to urge the Governor to take immediate steps “to prevent catastrophic increases in hospital admissions”. 

Although deaths nationwide are lower than during the peak of last spring, they are rising rapidly. More than 1,200 new deaths were reported on Saturday, pushing the 7-day average to more than 1,120 a day, a 38% increase since two weeks ago. The 7-day rolling average of daily deaths in Alabama has doubled since the beginning of November. 

A friend recently told me he will not wear a mask because he wants to enjoy life while he can. “After all”, he said, “our days on Earth are numbered.” That’s true, I replied, but you can add more days to the number if you just take basic precautions.  Here are the 14-day totals:

11/2  -    907

11/3  -  1037

11/4 -   1848

11/5 -   1381

11/6 -   1556

11/7 -   1768

11/8 -   1205

11/9 -   1190

11/10 - 1720

11/11 - 2070

11/12-  2000

11/13 - 2980

11/14 - 2226

11/15 - 1979

Jefferson Co. again led the way with 305 cases (its 7-day rolling average is now 272). Madison Co. had 150 (7-day average =127); Calhoun - 138 (a record); and Shelby 98. All but 15 of Alabama’s 67 counties now have 14-day positivity rates above 20%.