November 1, 2020 - A Watershed Election in the Midst of Exponential Spread
A Watershed Election in the Midst of Exponential Spread
November 1, 2020
Today marks the 6-month anniversary of my first post about the pandemic. This one will be my last for a few days. I’m taking Monday and Tuesday off, perhaps Wednesday as well. I’ll be back after the election, however. This virus is not finished with us so I will have more to say.
Today, we saw our statewide cases increase by 1,700 (incl 756 probables). According to ADPH, today’s numbers include 846 previously unreported positive lab results from Limestone, Lawrence, Franklin, Colbert, and Lauderdale counties. There was no effort to explain why the residents of these counties in northwest Alabama were not notified of these cases when they occurred. In the case of Lauderdale County, today’s additions represent more than 10% of all the positive cases in the county throughout this pandemic, dating back to March.
There were also 6,327 tests. Excluding the older cases, the State had a one-day positivity rate of 13.5% and a 7-day rolling average positivity rate of 15.6%. Including the older cases, the one-day rate is 26.9% and the rolling average is 18.45%. Either way, Alabama has the highest positivity rate in the Southeast over the last 7 days and stands in the top 10 in the nation.
Recording 6 more deaths takes our overall death toll to 2,973. There are at least 967 confirmed hospitalizations statewide in 95 reporting hospitals. As I’ve stated before, the data on both cases and hospitalizations tend to be lighter on weekends.
As the campaigning in battleground states reached a crescendo this weekend, public health experts, like Dr. Anthony Fauci and Dr. Scott Gottlieb, have delivered grim forecasts for the winter. Interviewed on CBS’s Face the Nation, Dr. Gottlieb said, “We’re right at the beginning of what looks like exponential spread in a lot of states. I think December is probably going to be our toughest month.” In a separate interview, Fauci agreed that “we’re in for a whole lot of hurt.”
On Tuesday, exercise your most precious right as an American citizen and go vote. When you do, be vigilant, wear your mask and stay socially distant. With so many mail-in votes in the middle of a global pandemic, this election is without precedent. It might take a while to count all the votes and declare winners in all the important races. We must be patient.
Good luck and I’ll see you again on the other side of the election. The 14-day totals:
10/19 - 859
10/20 -1043
10/21 -1146
10/22 -1390
10/23 -1287
10/24 -1178 - 1769
10/25 -1079
10/26 - 967
10/27- 1115
10/28 -1269
10/29 -1443
10/30 -1347
10/31 -1789
11/1 - 1700 (incl 756 probables)
Jefferson County led again with 187 new cases, while Madison County had 107. Several smaller counties saw spikes, including Limestone (77) and Cullman (50). Lauderdale added 270 probable cases, which resulted from tests performed this summer, while Colbert added 140, Franklin added 62 and Limestone added 45.