May 6, 2021
In the past week in the U.S., on average, new daily cases fell 11.1% and Covid-related hospitalizations fell 7.9%. Over the same timeframe in Alabama, new daily reported cases rose 1.4% and Covid-related hospitalizations rose 6.9%. Today, there were 565 new cases reported (incl. 259 probables) and the 7-day moving average equals 357 new cases per day. Over the last 3 days, the daily average is 409 cases. In other words, the current trend in daily cases has turned up.
There are now 365 confirmed patients in 103 reporting hospitals, or 3.54 patients per hospital. That compares with 3.20 patients per hospital yesterday and 3.03 per hospital one week ago today. In other words, the trend in hospitalizations has also turned up.
It’s unlikely the recent uptick in daily cases and hospitalizations signals a dramatic new surge; however, it does illustrate the stubborn tenacity of this virus in the absence of herd immunity. What will it take to eradicate this disease? Is eradication even possible in the face of vaccine resistance on the part of a small, but vocal, minority?
To reach 70% immunity in Alabama, at least 3,432,000 people of any age must develop immunities either through vaccination or natural infection. As of today, approximately 1,620,000 Alabamians have received at least one dose of a vaccine. In addition, about 330,000 Alabamians have tested positive over the last 6 months. If you assume that the actual number of infected persons is 3 times the confirmed number (including asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic people who were not tested), then about 2,610,000 are currently immune - meaning we are still about 820,000 persons short of herd immunity.
Of course, our vaccination program remains ongoing, though the rate of vaccination continues to decline. During the last week, Alabama has averaged just 20,400 distributed doses per day, while the average over the last 3 workdays is only 16,000 per day. Federal officials are expected to authorize the Pfizer regime to be used to vaccinate 12-15 year olds perhaps as early as next week, which will allow about 300,000 more Alabamians to become protected. Unfortunately, that leaves us several hundred thousand people short of eradicating this virus in the coming months. That gap may prove insurmountable if the rate of vaccination does not stabilize.
Two recently published studies confirm that the Pfizer vaccines are highly effective in preventing infection by both the U.K. variant and the South Africa variant. While that just confirms what we already knew about the U.K. variant, it is particularly good news as relates to the South Africa variant. A study of 200,000 people, published in the New England Journal of Medicine, found that the Pfizer vaccine is 87 to 89.5 percent effective against the U.K. variant and 72 to 75 percent effective against the South Africa variant. The Pfizer vaccine proved to be 100% effective at preventing severe, critical or fatal disease caused by both variants.
The results of an early-stage trial of the Moderna vaccine — though not published or vetted by scientists — suggests that a single dose given as a booster was highly effective against variants first identified in South Africa and Brazil. If a single booster shot of the Moderna vaccine is proven to provide greater protection against the original virus as well as the variants first identified in South Africa and Brazil, that is very good news. Moderna also reported that a second booster specifically designed to counter the variant identified in South Africa produced an even stronger immune response. The totals:
4/22- 682
4/23- 428
4/24- 421
4/25- 233
4/26- 217
4/27- 359
4/28- 376
4/29- 430
4/30- 409
5/1 - 387
5/2 - 288
5/3 - 187
5/4 - -0-
5/5 - 662
5/6 - 565