May 4, 2021 - Anything is Possible

Anything is Possible

May 4, 2021

After a 10-day break from Covid-19, the first since my initial Facebook post on May 1, 2020, it is a relief to report that Alabama is no worse off now than it was on April 23, 2021, when I last posted.

On April 23, we were averaging 550 new cases per day over the prior 7 days; now, that average is 348 new cases per day. The positivity rate was over 15% on April 23; today, the rate has dropped to below 10%. While the United States has experienced a 10% decline in new daily cases over the past week, Alabama has experienced a 36% decline. On a per capita basis, Alabama has averaged 7 new daily cases per 100K population over the last 7 days, the same as Mississippi, Arkansas and Hawaii. Only 2 states - Oklahoma (6 per 100K) and California (4 per 100K) - have had fewer new cases per capita over the same period.

In terms of hospitalizations, there are now 345 patients in 103 reporting hospitals (3.35 per hospital), which is a 9.4% increase over last week but it is a 4.8% decrease in hospitalizations since April 23. The hospitalization rate in the United States has declined 10% since last week.

As for vaccinations, an average of 2.29 million doses per day were administered in the United States last week, while in Alabama, an average of 21.3K doses per day were administered. In both cases, daily vaccinations declined by 17% compared to the prior week. Alabama has now administered at least one dose to 1,603,454 people, covering 40.7% of the 16 and older population (national average = 55.2%), and 32.7% of the State’s entire population (national average = 44.4%). At least 1,168,235 people have now been fully vaccinated, or 23.8% of the entire population (national average = 31.8%).

The vaccination rate is clearly declining throughout the country - only 6 states saw an increase in weekly doses this week compared to last week, while 44 states saw a weekly decline, led by Wyoming, where 60% fewer doses were administered. As vaccine resistance in GOP-leaning states becomes more apparent, it raises the question of whether herd immunity will ever be achieved by vaccination alone. The longer it takes to reach herd immunity, the more likely the virus will continue to mutate, creating future variants that will prolong the battle.

That is why President Biden set a new goal today to reach 70% of adults with at least one vaccine shot by July 4. Whether that goal is achievable I cannot say, but I wouldn’t bet against it. It seemed inconceivable, just 3 months ago, that 55% of all Americans, age 16 and older, would receive at least one dose by May 1. There is still much work left to be done but we have come a long way.

Ten days ago, Louise and I set out on a cross-country road trip to California to visit our son whom we had not seen in 15 months. Along the way, we were reminded of other man-made tragedies from which America has rebounded - in Memphis, Little Rock, Tulsa and Oklahoma City. We also stood in awe of the magnificence of God’s creation in this country - at the Grand Canyon, the Painted Desert and Zion National Park. After witnessing these things, I believe anything is possible. Surely, it should be within our reach to convince at least 70% of Americans to do what is right and also happens to be in their own self-interest. The totals:

4/20- 1,443 (including 1,110 backlog)

4/21- 412

4/22- 682

4/23- 428

4/24- 421

4/25- 233

4/26- 217

4/27- 359

4/28- 376

4/29- 430

4/30- 409

5/1 - 387

5/2 - 288

5/3 - 187