May 31, 2020

May 31, 2020

A strange thing happened today. There were 618 new COVID-19 cases reported in Alabama yesterday. Then, ADPH’s dashboard was shut down all morning. When the dashboard reopened at noon, there appeared for the first time two separate categories of new cases - “Probable” and “Confirmed”. There was no explanation for the distinction between these categories, but 289 of the 17,649 previously reported cases were listed as “Probable”. Today, Alabama reported 490 new cases (11 more deaths) and all of them were “Confirmed”.

It is not yet clear if ADPH will continue to make this distinction, or if yesterday was a unique situation. This reminded me of a reclassification by the state of New York of its death data in mid-April. NY determined that thousands of deaths had occurred at home, rather than a hospital, so there was no formal certification of the cause of death. Nevertheless, New York decided to add these probable COVID deaths to its totals because the victims had exhibited symptoms and been in close proximity to persons who tested positive for the disease prior to death.

ADPH seems to be doing the opposite of what NY decided to do. Its dashboard will no longer include probable cases in its overall totals. Going forward, I will continue to combine daily confirmed and probable cases, however. My reasoning is that Alabama medical facilities are in crisis, lacking in resources and understaffed, while COVID cases are exploding. Also, as the incidence of infection spreads into rural areas where medical facilities are distant, there will be more patients who elect to quarantine at home. Although some cases may not be “confirmed”, they must be included to convey an accurate snapshot of Alabama's condition.

Here are the 14-day totals in the State:

5/18 - 300

5/19 - 387

5/20 - 358

5/21 - 403

5/22 - 367

5/23 - 374

5/24 - 348

5/25 - 639

5/26 - 592

5/27 - 353

5/28 - 487

5/29 - 511

5/30 - 618 (329 confirmed & 289 probable)

5/31 - 490

Montgomery -61; Mobile - 47; Jefferson - 46.