May 24, 2022
A week ago today, the 7-day average of daily reported cases in the United States topped 100,000 per day for the first time since mid-February, when the Omicron tsunami was quickly receding. The daily average is now 106,000 cases per day and rising - and the real number of cases is likely 4-5 times the reported rate due to the prevalence of at-home testing, plus the absence of testing for asymptomatic cases.
In other words, the U.S. is riding another wave and Alabama is not immune. During the 7-day period ending today (May 24), Alabama reported 3,627 cases (518 per day), a rise of 26% in one week and 83% in two weeks. Even more concerning is the recent rise in hospitalizations. Today, there are 220 patients in Alabama hospitals, compared to just 139 patients four days ago. In percentage terms, Alabama’s 48% weekly rise in hospitalizations is 2nd only to Wyoming, though Alabama’s per capita rate of hospitalization is still lower than all but 12 other states.
This new national wave is largely driven by yet another Omicron sub-variant - Ba.2.12.1 - which last week was linked to 58% of new cases. This sub-variant is outcompeting Ba.2 and appears to have minimal cross-immunity with Ba.1 - which means the natural immunities derived from prior Omicron infections last winter, which offered protection against Ba.2, are doing much less to protect against Ba2.12.1. That spells trouble in Alabama, where Omicron infections last winter were high but vaccination rates are low.
Though reinfections were pretty rare immediately after the departure of Omicron Ba.1, now we are seeing people with 4 shots who are getting breakthrough infections, even 1-2 weeks after their most recent shot, when there should be a maximum level of neutralizing antibodies. That’s not a good sign, considering that vaccine effectiveness against symptomatic infection before Omicron used to be around 95%.
Vaccine effectiveness against severe infection is still very high, but even that shield appears to be diminishing. Indeed, recent reports out of Kaiser Permanente and the UK Health Security Agency indicate that vaccines may be no more than 80% effective against severe infection after four months, due to more rapid waning than first believed.
As this new wave gathers steam, this is no time for Congress to cut back on funding for Covid research and treatment. Our primary backstop to infection is Paxlovid, an antiviral that could be linked to rebound infections. More funding is desperately needed to speed up the development of alternative medications and vaccines.
Finally, I will leave you with this bit of good news. Pfizer said Monday that its 3-dose vaccine regimen has proven 80% effective at preventing symptomatic infections in children 6 months to 4 years old. Hours after Pfizer released its data, the FDA announced its committee of independent experts will meet June 15 to consider Pfizer’s and Moderna’s applications to have their shots authorized for children under the age of 5. The totals:
5/11 - 394
5/12 - 456
5/13 - 419
5/14 - not reporting
5/15 - not reporting
5/16 - 955
5/17 - 451
5/18 - 546
5/19 - 629
5/20 - 592
5/21 - not reporting
5/22 - not reporting
5/23 - 1,302
5/24 - 558