May 22, 2021
On Friday, 443 new cases were reported in Alabama (incl 212 probables), resulting in a 7-day moving average of 375 daily cases (net of backlog reported on 5/15). As of 3:30 p.m., our case count for today has not been released. However, today’s current hospitalization report, which was released, shows there are 280 patients in 103 reporting hospitals (2.72 per hospital). This follows yesterday’s report of 296 patients, the first day with fewer than 300 patients statewide since April 9, 2020, more than one year ago.
For the first time in 11 months, the daily average of new coronavirus infections in the United States has fallen below 30,000. The 7-day average dipped to 27,815 on Friday, the lowest since June 22, 2020 and less than 10% of the infection rate during the winter surge. The big question now is whether the virus will be nearly extinguished in the U.S. by mounting vaccinations, or whether it will smolder in areas with relatively low immunization rates, like Alabama, and potentially flare up when colder weather returns. More than 60% of adults in the U.S. have had at least one shot of a vaccine, putting the country on track to reach President Biden’s 70% target by July 4.
Although Alabama’s new daily cases appear to have plateaued, it’s clear that the incidence of severe cases requiring hospitalization is sharply declining. This is to be expected, as adults, particularly seniors, get vaccinated. According to research recently published in Nature magazine, neutralizing-antibody data from trials of seven widely used vaccines found a strong link between participants’ antibody levels recorded in early-stage trials and vaccine-efficacy results from late-stage trials. Why is that significant?
It helps to explain why most people who have been vaccinated, even with just one dose, are able to ward off severe reactions, even when infected with one of the variants. Because antibody levels wane over time, the researchers predict that booster shots might be needed in about a year, but protection against severe disease could last many years even without them.
In light of the significant decline in Alabama’s infection rate, I raised the possibility of cutting back the frequency of my newsletter - or possibly ending it altogether. It is an understatement to say I am moved by the responses I received. The last 15 months have been an emotional rollercoaster for most of us. For the first 10 of those months, we were put in the position of making personal decisions with potential life-and-death consequences not only for ourselves, but for every person we met, based on information that was constantly shifting, typically self-contradictory, and usually coming from dubious or compromised sources. We were told to inject bleach (or sunlight) into our bodies and assured that it would all be gone by Easter. Our most cherished institutions - churches, schools, libraries, sports teams - were shut down one by one. Worst of all, we saw half a million of our fellow citizens - our mothers, fathers, grandparents, spouses, colleagues and friends - die lonely and often preventable deaths in the arms of overworked and exhausted hospital staff.
It is no wonder we are reluctant to accept that we may have turned the corner or it could be safe to resume our daily lives. Young parents with small children feel especially vulnerable. When I started writing over a year ago, I looked around and determined I would have to dig for the facts myself and rely on the sources I could trust. I wrote about what I discovered primarily because I found the experience to be calming. As one of you said, “Something seems less scary when you say it out loud.”
So, I’ve decided to continue writing a bit longer - once or twice a week, depending on the news. Each Saturday, for sure. Let’s see if we can get the daily case count down and the vaccination rate up. Again, I cannot thank you enough for your confidence. The totals:
5/8 - 419
5/9 - 244
5/10 - 106
5/11 - 310
5/12 - 347
5/13- 1,147 (including 306 backlog) - net 841
5/14- 4,918 (including 4,877 backlog) - net 41
5/15- 2,016 (including 1,235 backlog) - net 781
5/16 - 254
5/17 - 184
5/18 - 336
5/19 - 288
5/20 - 339
5/21 - 443
Thank you so much for devoting what must be many hours gathering this data. You are our trusted resource.
This Data and your professional research & frank delivery is book worthy! I am so thankful to you for “ telling it like it was” and your honest, heartfelt assessment kept this awful Pandemic in prospective for me! I am a Registered Nurse with years of experience, but I needed your info to keep me sane! I needed a real person to confirm what we were living...Thank you!